RK Nagar by-election and new political formulations

Since the death of the former Chief Minister the party that she steered for closer to two and a half decades (1989-2016) is on the verge of a split.  The history of by elections in the state shows they always run to a pattern. The ruling party wins the by-election.  Never mind if there were charges of corruption and money for vote during the by-election time. 

The party in power controls the administrative setup and even with the model code of conduct that comes into force with the announcement of election, the party in power takes it as an advantage to promote its political interest. 

The complaints from the other parties to EC are not taken seriously whenever the code of conduct is violated.  In 1982, when AIADMK was in power, the by-election in Periyakulam went in favour of the ruling party. 

Again, in 1993, the by-election in Palani went in favour of AIADMK (when it was in power, and Jayalalithaa was the Chief Minister between 1991-96). The by- election in 2009 when DMK was in power (2006-2011) at Thirumangalan, Bargur, Ilayangudi, Cumbum, Vandavasi and Tiruchendur all went in favour of DMK. In 2010, again the by-election in Pennagaram also went in favour of DMK. 

When AIADMK came to power between 2011-2016, Jayalalithaa contested the RK Nagar by- election in June 2015 and won the election after her conviction and acquittal in the disproportionate wealth case in the Karnataka High court.  

The three assembly seats for which the election was deferred by the EC in 2016 general election also saw the AIADMK candidates returning to the Assembly.  Another feature of the by-election is withdrawal of main parties in the by- election.  

Whenever the AIADMK was in power, the DMK would withdraw from the contest ; in the same way AIADMK had withdrawn in the past from contesting a by- election. This is due to the fact that the party in power will use all its influence—official and otherwise— to come to power. 

The smaller parties (alliance partners) which supported the AIADMK and DMK in the past have also withdrawn from by- elections charging the party in power with gross misuse of power. It is also noted that sometimes we see highest number of candidates contesting in by-elections.   (There was a total of 39 candidates in Aravakurichi in 2016). 

RK Nagar is going to the poll continuously for three years now. (By-election in 2015, general election in 2016 and again by-election in 2017).  This by-election is going to be different, as the party in power is split between two groups.  

The O Panneerselvam group has E Madhusudhanan— the former AIADMK Presidium Chairman—a son of the soil, who was elected from RK Nagar constituency in the 1991 election. The former Chief Minister’s niece Deepa Jayakumar has launched MGR Amma Deepa Peravai and announced that she too would contest the by-election. There are four possible scenarios emerging now: 1. 

Who will contest in the official symbol of AIADMK as it is contested by both the Sasikala and OPS groups?  2.  The possibility of the party splitting into two and again, who will get the party symbol and the recognition of EC for that?  3. What will be the role of smaller parties in TN which fought the election under the PWF in the 2016 general election? 4. In the event of OPS group delayed in/not getting the party symbol to contest in the by-election, will they field a candidate as an independent to register their dissent or opt to support Deepa under the MGR Amma Deepa Peravai?  There is a possibility of new formulations, alliances and for the launch of a new political party.