Action replay, 30 years on

While Palanisamy seemingly has numbers in his side, Panneerselvam is riding on the popular support to him. The power struggle in Tamil Nadu is reminiscent to the one 30 years ago when the popular chief minister M G Ramachandran breathed his last on the night of December 24, 1987.  

While his widow Janaki Ramachandran banked on the support of legislators, the then caretaker Chief Minister VR Nedunchezhiyan declared himself as the candidate for AIADMK legislature party. He had the backing of some senior ministers like Panruti Ramachandran, S Thirunavukkarasu and KKSSR Ramachandran. Other ministers including MGR loyalists RM Veerappan and KA Krishnasamy backed Janaki. However, the then Propaganda Secretary Jayalalithaa supported Nedunchezhiyan and addressed meetings all over the state. She had the backing of 29 MLAs. 

But now, Panneerselvam is facing the same fate of Nedunchezhiyan, who lacked numbers. 

It’s ironical that the AIADMK has to suffer a split whenever its popular leaders pass away. If it was the death of MGR that caused the split in the state, history now repeats itself, after Jayalalithaa’s demise. 

The then governor of the state SL Khurana invited Janaki Ramachandran to form the government on the basis of numbers, with the condition that she seek a vote of confidence. With her forming the government, MLAs’ owing allegiance to Jayalalithaa were taken to several places by Thirunavakarasu and KKSSR Ramachandran to keep them in good humour, just like MLAs supporting AIADMk General Secretary Sasikala were taken to the Golden Bay beach resort in Koovathur. On both occasions, MLAs were not allowed to meet their relatives and friends. Elected MLAs have been kept captive on both occasions. 

Who can forget January 27, 1988? High drama was enacted inside the assembly. The Congress, which had 64 members in the 234 house, the highest for the party since 1962, announced that it would support the ‘undivided legacy’ of MGR, which actually meant that it would not support the Janaki Ramachandran faction in the trust vote. However, five MLAs, owing loyalty to Sivaji Ganesan, and on instructions from him, submitted their resignations from the house, just before the house met for the trust vote. Citing this, the then speaker PH Pandiyan, who always claimed that Speakers had ‘sky-high powers’ and the first presiding officer to invoke the provisions of the anti-defection law, first disqualified ten DMK MLAs for allegedly burning the copies of the Constitution declaring Hindi as the official language of the country. Senior DMK leader and its legislature party leader K Anbazhagan was one among those disqualified. In the afternoon on January 27, even before voting started, Pandiyan disqualified 29 MLAs of Jayalalithaa faction on the plea that they did not obey the party whip. Clashes erupted in the house and  probably for the first time in the legislative history of the country, police was summoned inside the house to arrest the MLAs, who were creating ‘trouble’. Later he announced that Janaki had won the trust vote with 98 MLAs supporting her. However, the then governor Khurana sent a report to the Centre on the happenings inside the house. Subsequently two days later, President’s rule was imposed in the state for the third time in the state, previous ones being 1976 and 1980. 

The situation is not similar now as Jayalalithaa, who was not a member of house, was not elected as legislature party leader of her group like Sasikala, who is also not a member of the house.  However, Jayalalithaa did not face any kind of criminal cases against her, nor was there any negative reports about her at that time. She was elected as the general secretary at a party conclave in a city hotel. Many members, who were not general council members were invited to the meeting on the grounds that they were primary members of the party. AIADMK constitution stipulates that all primary members of the party should elect the general secretary. 

Sasikala’s dream of becoming the chief minister shattered on Tuesday when the Supreme Court upheld the Karnataka trial court order, convicting Jayalalithaa, Sasikala, Elavarasi and VN Sudhakaran on the disproportionate wealth case.  Sasikala and two others have to undergo four years imprisonment and pay a fine of Rs.10 crore each.  With the sudden development, she had identified Palanisamy and named him as the leader of the AIADMK legislature party leader.  He instantly staked his claim, while the caretaker Chief Minister Panneerselvam said he was asked to resign under duress and also met the Governor. 

Now the ball is in the Govenor’s court, who has been keeping a studied silence, since the political crisis began.  He has a number of options before him, calling either Pannerselvam or Palanisamy to form the government and prove the majority in the floor of the house; or, he can take a cue from the past experience in Uttar Pradesh, where the governor called a composite session of the house and administered the oath of office to BJP’s Kalyan Singh as he enjoyed majority in the house. 

If the Governor is not satisfied with the claims and counter claims of the warring AIADMK factions, he can also call the DMK, the second largest party in the state legislature to form the government and prove its majority. But this is highly improbable as the DMK is not inclined to form the government but favours fresh polls in the state to fish in the troubled waters of the AIADMK. 

In that case, the Election Commission has a significant role as it has powers to freeze the AIADMK’s popular two leaves symbol. The freezing of the polls saw the party facing defeat in 1989 polls as both Janaki and Jayalalithaa faction had been allotted dove and cock symbols respectively. But the merger of the groups enabled the party to get back its original symbol and win the 1991 assembly election. 

Though there are similarities between two splits—in 1987 and what’s going on in the AIADMK camp now - all eyes are set on the Governor’s role in the entire episode.  Whether the state would face fresh elections, without popular leaders late Jayalalithaa and DMK patriarch M Karunanidhi, who is unwell. Both were star campaigners and huge crowd-pullers for their parties. If fresh elections are to be held, whether the  BJP the ruling party at the Centre, can make its presence felt in the state traditionally a Dravidian bastion - is a million dollar question.