Rajini’s entry may alter traditional vote share in TN

According to sources with Tamil Nadu Public Election Department, the AIADMK and the DMK alone were commanding more than 60 per cent of the total votes polled in all the elections when these parties contested. Tamil Nadu in the past three decades has been registering a voting poll percentage of 52 to 75 per cent of which Dravidian majors and their allies have registered more than 60 per cent of the votes polled.

The previous trend of vote share will change with new candidates coming in the fray and Rajini will be a factor in the upcoming polls and he will influence the vote share based on his political strategies, opined political commentator Tharasu Shyam. Already he has triggered confusion in AIADMK with CM and deputy CM contradicting their views over alliance with Rajinikanth, Shyam added.

The upcoming polls will be something different unlike the direct fight between the DMK and the AIADMK, opined political analyst Raveendran Duraisamy. Rajinikanth will have a direct impact on Naam Tamilar Katchi and Makkal Needhi Maiam. NTK’s strategy is to consolidate anti-Rajini votes and their core vote share will be anti-establishment and anti-Rajini. Opposing Rajini will be a plus for NTK.

In the case of Kamal, he had always endorsed Rajini as his good friend and Rajini, if he goes alone, it may affect Kamal’s vote share. The pro-Rajini votes which were earlier with Kamal will now go directly to Rajini affecting Kamal, Duariasmy explained.

In the case of AIADMK and DMK, the strategies adopted by Rajini will have an impact. In case of AMMK, their vote bank is anti-Centre and anti-state and it may get diluted in a tough battle, he said. Rajini is yet to be tested in terms of vote share and all the political parties will watch his moves. As on date, two parties NTK and MNM will have positive and negative impacts and for others, it will be a wait and watch game, Duraisamy added.

Age and lack of political experience may be a disadvantage for Rajinikanth, but Dravidian parties cannot afford to take Rajini as a minor factor, said political commentator R Mani. Rajinikanth will certainly command a vote share and to what extent he is garnering support will be known by May, Mani added.