Editorial: The heating up of a Cold War

By invading Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has embarked on a dangerous game, the outcome of which is fraught with terrifying possibilities. Those who had mocked the US President Joe Biden and the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson for repeatedly warning about an imminent invasion had clearly underestimated Putin’s determination to follow up on a series of threatening moves. The annexation of Crimea in 2014, a clear violation of Ukrainian sovereignty, was clearly not enough for Putin, who harbours a deep bitterness about how the Cold War ended, with the Soviet Union fracturing into many pieces and losing its influence around the world.

His covert support for dissidents among the Russian speaking population in Ukraine, his decision to recognise the provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent republics have culminated in a war that has engulfed almost all of Ukraine. The attack it launched has been both swift and savage, leading to a number of civilian casualties and condemnation in most parts of the world.

It is not entirely clear what Putin’s endgame is. Some believe that such extreme aggression could only be aimed at subjugating Ukraine and installing a puppet government. But this, as the spirit of ordinary Ukrainians has already shown, is not going to be easy. It will almost certainly result in a strong movement of insurgency, something that will have an impact on Putin at home. Then of course, there is the issue of sanctions, which has already weakened the rouble and will have an impact on commodity prices in Russia. Putin might find that invading a part of Ukraine is far easier than dealing with the political and economic blowback that is bound to follow.

Sanctions of course hurt both ways. And the closure of Russian gas lines to Europe and the ban of oil imports comes with its costs. But at a larger level, Putin’s invasion has altered the nature of the world in a day. A Cold War like situation is in danger of building up and there is a likelihood of the renewal of an alignment between Russia and China – an axis that will have enormous strategic implications for the world. Significantly, Xi Jinping has been supportive in his studied silence on Ukraine, which means that Russia is likely to give China a pass on issues such as Taiwan and the South China sea.

At home, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has reacted extremely mildly, stopping with a call to end the violence. But as the hostilities continue, there will be pressure from the US to make India’s position clear. India may find that a heavily polarised environment is not the ideal place to sit on the fence or hedge one’s bets. The Soviet Union’s earlier aggressions in Afghanistan and its inability to forcefully quell the upsurge among the Warsaw Pact countries should serve as reminders of the difficulties that follow reckless aggression. But it is doubtful that Putin is listening.