GDP seen dropping to 5 pc in 2019-20: Govt data

The figures show massive drop in growth rates following deceleration in the key sectors of industry and core sectors and now presage an 11-year drop in GDP growth. In Q2, the growth had dropped to 4.5 per cent.

"The Real GDP or GDP at Constant Prices (2011-12) in the year 2019-20 is likely to attain a level of Rs 147.79 lakh crore, as against the Provisional Estimate of GDP for the year 2018-19 of Rs 140.78 lakh crore, released on 31st May 2019. The growth in real GDP during 2019-20 is estimated at 5 per cent as compared to the growth rate of 6.8 per cent in 2018-19," the Statistics & Programme Implementation Ministry said.

The National Statistical Office (NSO), under the ministry, released the First Advance Estimates of National Income at both Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices, for the financial year 2019-20, along with the corresponding estimates of expenditure components of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Real GVA (Gross Value Addition) at Basic Prices is estimated to increase from Rs 129.07 lakh crore in 2018-19 to Rs 135.40 lakh crore in 2019-20. Estimated growth of real GVA in 2019-20 is 4.9 per cent as against 6.6 per cent in 2018-19.

The sectors, which registered a growth rate of over 4.9 percent, are, 'Electricity, Gas, Water Supply and Other Utility Services', 'Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting', 'Financial, Real Estate and Professional Services' and 'Public Administration, Defence and Other Services' at 5.4 per cent, 5.9 per cent, 6.4 per cent, and 9.1 per cent respectively.

The growth in the 'Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing', 'Mining and Quarrying', 'Manufacturing' and 'Construction' is estimated to be 2.8 per cent, 1.5 per cent, 2 per cent and 3.2 percent, respectively.

GVA at Basic Prices for 2019-20 from 'Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing' sector is estimated to grow by 2.8 per cent as co0mpared to growth of 2.9 per cent in 2018-19.

Crops including fruits and vegetables account for about 56 per cent, livestock products 30 per cent and forestry & fisheries 14 per cent share of GVA in total GVA of 'Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing' sector.

The GVA at Basic Prices for 2019-20 from 'Electricity, Gas, Water Supply and Other Utility Services' sector is expected to grow by 5.4 per cent as compared to growth of 7 per cent in 2018-19.

Estimate of IIP (Index of Industrial Production) of Electricity compiled for 2019-20 has been used for compilation. IIP of Electricity registered a growth rate of 1.6 per cent during April-October 2019-20.

GVA at Basic Prices for 2019-20 from 'Construction' sector is expected to grow by 3.2 per cent as compared to growth of 8.7 per cent in 2018-19.

Key indicators of Construction sector, namely, 'Production of Cement' and 'Consumption of Finished Steel' registered growth rates of (-) 0.02 per cent and 3.5 per cent respectively during April-November, 2019-20.