'Gold and Silver for medium to long term as investment'

CHENNAI: With uncertainties in the world - economics and geopolitics - investors having medium to long term outlook can have gold and silver in their portfolio, said Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

A 20 per cent allocation to gold exchange traded funds (ETF) in an investment portfolio during Diwali is ideal, said Quantum AMC.

Geopolitics, Central banks action and inflationary concerns are themes that are not only driving precious metals, but also triggering volatility in other asset classes, said Motilal Oswal in a report.

The US Federal Reserve is rushing to raise interest rates at an aggressive pace with an objective to tame inflation.

On the other hand, geo-political tensions between Russia-Ukraine and other economies continue to increase distress in the economy.

All this is raising questions regarding pace of global growth, institutions like IMF have also lowered their projections on the same.

Pointing out India as one of the largest consumers of gold and silver, Motilal Oswal said there has been a lot of development especially on the domestic front which are supporting prices.

"Government initiatives like, setting up GIFT city, signing an FTA (free trade agreement) between UAE and India, (implies that about 200 tonnes of gold will be imported from UAE at 1 per cent tariff rate quota-TRQ) and changes in import duty," the company said.

This year macro factors will have an upper hand over the move in metal prices, as tighter monetary policy scenario is not a great phase for non-yielding asset gold, the report said.

The gold price trend is caught between the tussle of bulls and bears.

Extreme negatives do trigger bargain buying for gold and so it is important for medium to long term investors to see a broader picture, Motilal Oswal said.

Except for a few dips, the overall trend for gold has remained positive, and the returns also are quite decent, the company added.

The company has suggested accumulation of gold at Rs 46,800-Rs 47,500 with a medium term target of Rs 53,000 and a long term target of Rs 58,000 with an expected upside of 8-17 per cent.

In the case of silver, Motilal Oswal said the accumulation zone will be Rs 53,500-Rs 54,000 with a medium term target of Rs 64,500 and a long term target of Rs 73,000 with an expected upside of 13-28 per cent.

According to Quantum AMC, the correction in the gold prices from the peak has made the metal affordable this festive season.

"To make the most of the correction, we recommend investing in efficient products such as gold ETFs (exchange traded funds) to maximize the benefits," Quantum AMC said.

Owning physical gold comes with additional costs such as making charges, retail premiums, storage concerns, and lower buyback value.

On its part, Emkay Global Financial Services in a report said the current weakness in gold may continue till there is more concrete information on the state of the economy in the major economies, especially against the background of an aggressive central bank trade-off unfavourable to growth and promoting stability.

Generally, gold is considered as a hedge against inflation but this time around it does not seem so.