Sluggish growth and high inflation leave ECB in tight spot

The euro zone economy is barely growing but inflation in the bloc remains high, leaving the European Central Bank with little choice but to inflict more financial pain on households and businesses to tame prices. Buffeted for more than a year by the surge in fuel prices that followed Russia's invasion of Ukraine, people in the 20 countries that share the euro are now starting to feel the effects of the ECB's massive increase in borrowing costs.

Economic output in the euro zone increased by just 0.1% in the first three months of the year as domestic consumption stagnated in many economies, a sign that surging inflation and falling real incomes are taking their toll on consumers. Growth came mostly from exports, the result of a revival in global trade as China re-opened for business after the pandemic.

But national data showed price growth was only falling slowly, probably leaving the ECB with no choice but to keep raising interest rates. "Individual country inflation data keeps pressure on the European Central Bank to remain aggressive on the hiking front at next week's central bank meeting despite euro-wide growth not that far from flatlining," said Charles Hepworth, an investment director at asset manager GAM Investments.

The ECB is widely expected to raise rates for the seventh straight meeting on May 4, with policymakers weighing another half-percentage-point (50 basis points) hike against the merits of slowing rises down to a quarter-point. Friday's inflation data showed progress was slow.

Inflation in Germany fell to 7.6% in April from 7.8% a month earlier. While Portugal and Ireland saw sharper drops in price growth, this remained far above the ECB's 2% target. And inflation even rose in France and Spain, largely as a result of some energy subsidies being reduced or phased out. But in a potential glimpse of sun for the ECB, there were some signs food prices are easing in both countries as well as Germany.

Surging grocery bills have been a key driver of overall inflation across the euro zone in recent months, driven by higher fuel costs, unfavorable weather and some margin expansion by companies. Inflation data for the euro zone as a whole will be released on May 2, along with an ECB survey of banks that policymakers view as critical in informing their upcoming decision.

Money markets currently price in another 70 basis points of ECB rate hikes by October, possibly followed by cuts as early as the start of next year.

The International Monetary Fund challenged those expectations on Friday, calling on the ECB to keep raising interest rates until the middle of 2024. It also said European Union finance ministers should tighten fiscal policy in concerted action to bring down high inflation, which would probably depress consumption further.

But economists said rate increases by the ECB and other central banks since last year were already likely to curb economic growth in the coming months, and might even push the euro zone into recession. "In the second half of the year the massive rate hikes by central banks worldwide are likely to apply the brake on growth," Commerzbank's senior economist Christoph Weil said.

The euro zone's largest economy, Germany, was already stagnating as a decline in government and household consumption offset an increase in exports and capital investment. Southern European economies Italy, Spain and, to a lesser extent, Portugal were the stand-out beneficiaries of a boost in trade, growing by 0.3%-0.5% in January to March compared with the last three months of 2022.

But Spain and Portugal, where a high proportion of floating-rate mortgages makes the surge in interest rates particularly painful for households, saw private consumption fall or decelerate. "All the (Spanish) growth comes from the foreign sector given a huge rebound in exports," Angel Talavera, an economist at Oxford Economics, said.