Setback for Biden, chance for Trump?

CHENNAI: The United States of America heads for the midterm polls in a political climate that few could have predicted a year or so ago – the plummeting popularity of President Joe Biden and a comeback of sorts for the man he defeated, former President Donald Trump. The midterms, which are held in November at the midpoint of a presidential term, consist of elections to the House of Representatives (the law-making body) and about a third of the seats in the Senate (the Upper House). That elections to the governorships of most States as well as some municipal level elections are held in conjunction only increase the significance of the midterms.

The Democrats enjoy majorities, albeit slim ones, in both Houses today, but these are in danger of coming unravelled. Many political pundits have written off the Congress and believe it will be a struggle for the Democrats to retain the Senate. Midterms have traditionally worked against the party in power, but the loss of the Houses would seriously hobble Biden’s legislative agenda. In the absence of a sea change in the popular mood, the cards seemed stacked against the Democrats. The country is struggling with high gas prices and many believe that Biden, and not only the war in Ukraine, has contributed to this spike, thanks to tighter regulations and the focus on renewable energy. Among the other issues that have furthered his unpopularity are perceptions about his failure to contain COVID-19 (from which he declared an early ‘independence’), the shambolic handling of the situation in Afghanistan and the rising costs of food that triggered the highest inflation in four decades.

To add to this, there is the issue of his age, his verbal gaffes and the belief that he is being ring-fenced from the media because of his lack of mental acuity – something that the right-wing media has focussed on. The hearing on the January 6 attack on Capitol Hill may have convinced a number of people of Donald Trump’s softness towards the rioters and his complicity in trying to subvert the election, but they have also contributed to the increasing polarisation in the country. Republicans have portrayed the hearings as an unnecessary distraction at a time when the country is struggling with more pressing issues. And so far, the recent Republican primaries – the elections to decide which candidate will stand in the midterms, have shown that Trump’s influence on the electorate remains strong.

Losing the House is bad enough, but if the Senate spins out of control as well, the Democrats will lose control of choosing judges at both the federal and high court levels. They will also find it difficult to block investigations into the Biden administration. These would most definitely include the business dealings of the President’s son, Hunter Biden; the possibility of trying to impeach certain officials cannot be ruled out.

Having said that, the US Supreme Court’s recent overturning of the Roe v Wade verdict might offer the Democrats and Biden some fodder for mobilising support on account of the anxiety that it has caused Americans. Biden has gone on record to say that the abortion ban will be taken up as a major issue during the midterms, as a talking point against the dangers of conservative thinking that excludes the fundamental rights of women from the table.

All in all, the midterms will set the note for 2024; by then, it will be clear whether Biden is in a position to run a second term. It will also be known whether the Republicans can find a suitable alternative if the controversial Donald Trump decides to throw his hat in the ring.