When Finland joined NATO

NEW DELHI: Last week, Finnish voters boosted conservative parties in a weekend election, denying Prime Minister Sanna Marin another term as the Nordic nation made its historic entry into NATO. The election was sparred over economic issues as voters in the nation with a 5.5 mn strong population shifted loyalties towards parties on the political right, seeking answers to rising state debt, inflation and other economic challenges. The expanding debt will be a hurdle for the new regime, as NATO membership will require Finland to amp up its defence spending.

The development marks the completion of a rapid sojourn into the military alliance for Helsinki, in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Finland shares a 1,300 km long border with Russia, which implies that NATO’s frontier with Moscow will roughly double in length. As expected, Russia has vowed that it will boost its forces in the west and northwest. Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko said that in the event that forces and resources of other NATO members are deployed in Finland, Moscow will take additional measures to reliably ensure Russia’s military security.

Finland joined NATO after Turkey ratified its membership last week, which lifted the final hurdle to membership for Helsinki. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year had pushed Sweden and Finland to apply for membership in the military alliance, ultimately abandoning decades of military non-alignment for the two nations. Ankara continues to hold up Sweden’s application over its grouse that Stockholm is giving safe shelter to terrorist groups that Turkey had demanded be extradited. Another country holding up Sweden’s admission is Hungary, which is upset with the Swedes for their criticisms of Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s policies.

For Finland, Russia’s invasion has come with a sense of deja vu, regarding its 1939 Winter War, when Moscow pounded Helsinki and the latter lost territories. Finland has since maintained a stance of neutrality throughout the duration of the Cold War. But now, when Russia once again adopted an aggressive stance, this time towards Ukraine, Helsinki’s complacence took a hit, and PM Sanna Marin mobilised public consensus towards membership in NATO. The war in Ukraine could be indirectly responsible for Marin’s defeat, as the military engagement entailed economic costs such as surging inflation and high borrowing across Europe.

Marin conceding defeat is symbolic of a greater leaning towards conservative and nationalist parties across Europe. Take for instance, Sweden which ousted its left wing government to go right last year. Subsequently, an election in Italy witnessed the triumph of Giorgia Meloni, a representative of the far-right party Brothers of Italy. A similar scene is playing out in Spain where the left wing government is under immense duress while the right wing and far right wing parties blaze ahead in the run-up to the election in December. These shifts in global polity are occurring even as Ukraine’s western allies are pumping north of $70 bn in military aid to the country to help it thwart a full-scale Russian invasion. NATO’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg remarked on Monday that there are no signs that Russian President Putin is preparing for peace.

The stakes have just been raised considerably for Finland. Petteri Orpo of the National Coalition Party, which emerged as the single largest party in the elections held on Sunday will be given the first chance to form the government. How he steers the nation amidst the economic challenges, while straddling its role in the world’s largest military alliance, will set the tone for Finland’s political future in the days to come.