Arming Ukraine: Could Germany step up if the US steps back?

KIEV: Ukraine’s biggest backer in its struggle against Russia’s invasion appears to be wobbling. Kyiv is at risk of losing its main weapons supplier, the United States — an aid package proposed by US President Joe Biden worth $61 billion (56.6 billion euros) has been blocked since late last year due to a fight in the US Congress. Who can Kyiv count on these days?

London is one of the first doors Ukraine can knock on. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak recently visited Kyiv and announced an unprecedented military aid package for the Ukrainian armed forces worth more than $3 billion (2.7 billion euros). The United Kingdom is also the first Western ally to sign a security agreement with Ukraine, ensuring long-term arms supplies. France is preparing a similar deal. But what about Berlin?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly brought up the prospect of Germany taking on a leadership role in Europe in supplying arms to Kyiv. According to calculations from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the US remains the undisputed largest donor to Ukraine in terms of pure military aid, having sent the equivalent of close to $50 billion. Germany, however, has climbed from third to second place. From the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 until the end of October 2023, Berlin has sent military aid worth more than 17 billion euros. In third place comes London, whose support the Kiel Institute tallied at 6.6 billion euros.

Given that Germany has the biggest economy in the European Union, shouldn’t it be in the top spot?

“It should, but that doesn’t mean it’s ready to,” German journalist Gesine Dornbluth, an author of several books on Russia, told DW on the Geofaktor podcast. Berlin may be proud of its second-place spot, but it’s all relative, she said.

“If you look at the country’s economic output, you see that German aid per inhabitant is less than that of some Baltic countries,” she said.

At the end of January, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said he expected Berlin to conclude a security agreement with Kyiv soon but did not specify a time frame. As 2023 came to a close, Berlin announced a plan to double its aid to Ukraine for 2024 to 8 billion euros.

Berlin has also made progress in providing new types of weapons. At the end of January, the German Defense Ministry announced it would deliver six decommissioned Sea King Mk41 military helicopters to Ukraine for the first time, following in the footsteps of London, which had already sent several.

“Helicopters are good, but they’re not enough,” said Dornbluth. According to the analyst, Germany isn’t ready to significantly step up aid to Ukraine because the Bundeswehr itself does not have sufficient reserves, and new orders for weapons production have not been placed in time. At the same time, there are weapons in Germany’s stockpiles that Berlin is simply not prepared to hand over. Taurus missiles, for example.

Scholz has reasoned, among other things, that possible Ukrainian attacks deep into Russian territory could lead to a dangerous escalation of the war. Dornbluth said the chancellor’s arguments weren’t convincing. So far, Kyiv has kept its promises not to use Western-provided weapons on the internationally recognised territory of the Russian Federation. On the other hand, Germany, overall, already does “really a lot” for Ukraine, particularly in providing aerial defense systems.