Change of guard: Who will be the next NATO chief?

BRUSSELS: It’s finally clear that NATO will get a new secretary-general. Jens Stoltenberg will soon be stepping down after nearly a decade of service in which he was asked to stay on four times — once even after he’d accepted a new job as head of the Norwegian central bank. Over those years, given the ruptured relationship with Russia and true trans-Atlantic tension with former US President Donald Trump, it wasn’t surprising no one wanted to risk replacing the stoic Stoltenberg, who earned the nickname the “Trump whisperer” for his ability to placate the acerbic American leader. But the baton is now expected to be passed at the alliance’s 75th anniversary summit in Washington in July, with Stoltenberg’s term officially up on October 1, 2024.

Stoltenberg’s former spokesperson has suggested the new chief should be chosen sooner than that, to avoid distraction and complications. Oana Lungescu, herself the longest-serving NATO spokesperson, emphasized that “it’s really important a choice is made early enough and that it is delinked from both the European Union elections [in June 2024] and the campaign for the United States elections.”

Lungescu, now a distinguished fellow at the Royal United Services Institute think tank in the UK, warned that “the worst thing that could happen would be the secretary-general of NATO being a sort of ‘leftover’ from late-night negotiations over the EU table or getting caught up in a very messy United States election.” But they sure don’t make it easy. It’s one of the most high-profile job openings in the world, yet there’s no formal job description, no checklist of required skills nor any way to “apply.” Those pining for the post will not be invited to interview and should not appear overly eager to be chosen.

While Washington is widely seen as the kingmaker (more about any possibility of a “queenmaker” below), any one of NATO’s 31 governments can play the spoiler. “It’s really a lot of backroom diplomacy across the Atlantic,” said Ian Lesser, the Brussels-based vice president of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, a think tank. “Everything from paperclips to nuclear strategy is done by consensus, so this is part of that process.”

Along those lines, NATO’s new secretary-general must oppose Russia — but not so vehemently as to spark fears of escalation — and be prepared to defend the very existence of the alliance without further provoking its detractors. Over the many years a new chief has been pondered, “nice-to-have” qualities have also been mentioned, such as being from a country with robust defense spending, from a southern or eastern ally for a change after almost 15 years of Nordic leadership, and how about finally putting a woman in charge?

Many names have come up and gone down. Previous potential front-runners such as Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and former UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace even reportedly spoke in person with US President Joe Biden about their chances, but both removed themselves from consideration afterwards without explanation.

Currently, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, Latvian Foreign Minister Krisjanis Karins and outgoing Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte all openly want the job. Rutte has gradually emerged as the favorite. The second longest-serving prime minister among NATO allies after Hungary’s Viktor Orban, Rutte is considered a “safer” choice than a Baltic politician, with Moscow’s war on Ukraine dominating the alliance agenda.