Editorial: Neighbours or friends first?
The people of Sri Lanka, especially the young, have voted to throw out the dynastic elites who monopolised power since the presidential system of government was instituted in 1978.
Anura Kumara Dissanayake
NEW DELHI: The election of Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake to Sri Lanka’s presidency is obviously significant for India. It must give New Delhi pause to put some real heft into its Neighbourhood First policy instead of just using it as nice coinage.
The people of Sri Lanka, especially the young, have voted to throw out the dynastic elites who monopolised power since the presidential system of government was instituted in 1978. They have entrusted the reins to a relatively unknown leader with a mandate to revive the crisis-ridden economy. This is the culmination of the Janatha Ariyagala revolution of 2022 which forced President Gotabaya Rajapakse to flee the country.
Similar popular movements have happened in Bangladesh and the Maldives, resulting in the overthrow of regimes friendly to India. New Delhi has the task of reassessing its influence in these countries and reorienting itself to the new regimes. More importantly, it must perform the delicate balancing act of protecting India’s interests without appearing to be overbearing.
Initial overtures to the new Sri Lankan president have been good and seem to have been reciprocated. In his congratulatory message to Dissanayake, Prime Minister Modi made a pointed mention of India’s Neighbourhood First policy. For his part, Dissanayake said right after being sworn in that his government would do nothing to compromise the security interests of any neighbour. This addresses a major source of concern for India.
There are indications that New Delhi did sense the change in the Sri Lankan air. Back in February, Dissanayake was invited to New Delhi to meet with prominent leaders, including External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and National Security Adviser Ajit Doval. This was significant as it was the first time that a leader of the JVP was invited for high-level discussions in India. It is an indication that New Delhi has been preparing to engage with the new leaders emerging in Sri Lanka.
While Dissanayake’s victory is indeed a major turn in Sri Lanka’s politics, the picture is still emerging. The economy remains in deep crisis and the new President has to work under tough conditions set by the International Monetary Fund. He has no majority in Parliament and it’s not certain that JVP or the National People’s Power alliance it leads will win one in the elections to be held soon. Dissanayake’s own vote in the presidential election was not decisive: He got 43 percent of the vote, well short of the 50 percent plus one needed in the first count.
Moreover, JVP’s chequered past makes it difficult to predict what sort of stance Sri Lanka will take vis-a-vis India. Although the party’s origins were steeped in revolutionary Marxism, the ideology remains in the party only in an attenuated form. Dissanayake himself is said to be a pragmatist. Of more interest will be the JVP’s links to Sinhala nationalism and the stance it will take towards the Tamil minority.
As in Bangladesh, the situation in Sri Lanka is replete with ifs and buts for India. As of now, we only have clarity on one issue from the new leader of Sri Lanka. Dissanayake has categorically said, “Yes, we will definitely cancel the Adani Group’s wind power project in Sri Lanka as it threatens our energy sovereignty.” That sets up a rather delicate conundrum for India’s foreign policy.
