Editorial: Prosecutor vs felon

UNITED STATES: The easy conclusion to be drawn from US President Joe Biden’s decision not to seek re-election and support Vice-President Kamala Harris instead is that the election is now a cinch for Donald Trump. Even prior to Biden’s announcement on Sunday, the context was coalescing towards that outcome. The assassination bid on Trump’s life and the disarray within the Democratic Party after Biden’s infirmity due to old age make this seem a foregone conclusion.

However, recent electoral experience in several countries indicates that foregone conclusions have a way of becoming hasty pudding. Trump’s own victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016, after trailing her in the polls in the last fortnight, is fresh in everyone’s memory. In just the recent few weeks, we have seen easy calculations come a cropper in France, where voters developed the heebie-jeebies about voting the far right into power in the final round of the vote, and India, where Narendra Modi’s cockiness of winning 400 seats in Parliament was snubbed in no small measure. Add to that the Labour Party’s resounding return to power in the UK, and you have evidence that the drift to the far right is not inexorable or inevitable.

There is basis for making Trump the favourite at this stage: The bid on his life has created the ‘sympathy factor’; the Democratic Party has a tortuous process to go through to finalise its replacement for Biden possibly Kamala Harris or someone else and will need several weeks to rouse support for him or her; and if the nominee is to be Harris, she significantly trails Trump in head-to-head polls as things stand today.

Most importantly, it’s uncertain how Harris’s identity profile progressive, woman, black will go down in the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The Hillary Clinton precedent from 2016 shows how difficult it is for women to overcome the glass ceiling for the top job in America.

However, that Trump victory of 2016 is also proof that upsets are always possible. Although the Democratic nominee will have only four months to catch up with Trump in the polls, a few factors will help him or her. For one thing, just as there is sympathy for Trump on account of the attempt on his life, there is an outpouring of emotion for Biden for putting America’s interest ahead of his own ambition. His administration’s handling of the pandemic and the inflation-hit economy will draw support from suburban America.

Plus, the significant demographic changes taking place in the US, with younger, more diverse populations becoming a larger share of the electorate and older Trump-oriented classes diminishing, are likely to aid the Democratic nominee. If Kamala Harris is indeed nominated, she, as the first female Vice-President of African American descent, might benefit from the Black vote, just as Biden did in 2020. Similarly, Democrats historically benefit from high voter turnouts. Voter mobilisation, especially of young people, women, and minorities, proved key in dislodging Trump in 2020. If this trend continues, it could favour Harris over Trump.

Also, suburban voters, particularly women, played a crucial role in the 2020 election by swinging towards the Democratic ticket. If Harris can maintain or build on this support by playing on the abortion issue, it could be decisive in key swing states. Finally, elections have a way of presenting Solomonesque choices to voters. Americans are now being asked to choose between a felon and a prosecutor. And the jury is out there.