Turmoil in Niger: What are the coup leaders’ intentions?
The soldiers left the public in the dark as to whom they had chosen to lead the country. It apparently took two days of internal wrangling for them to reach a decision.
File Photo
WASHINGTON: There was initially a power vacuum in the Sahel after the leaders of the uprising in Niger read out their declaration that President Mohamed Bazoum had been deposed on Wednesday. The soldiers left the public in the dark as to whom they had chosen to lead the country. It apparently took two days of internal wrangling for them to reach a decision. It wasn’t until midday on Friday that General Abdourahmane Tchiani, who goes by the name Omar, appeared on state television with the title “president of the National Council for the Safeguard of the Fatherland.” Tchiani, the long-standing head of the presidential guard, was reportedly involved in an unsuccessful coup attempt shortly before the democratic transfer of power in 2021.
Observers believe that other senior generals had also sensed an opportunity to seize power. Prior to Tchiani’s appearance on TV, DW correspondent Gazali Abdou reported a degree of anxiety in Niger’s capital, Niamey: “If, after a few days, they can’t agree on the leadership, there’s a risk that the situation among them will escalate.” It remains to be seen whether Tchiani will now stabilize things as the new and undisputed ruler.
One key question about the coup is what has motivated its leaders. Daniel Kere is the executive director of the association Cercle d’Etudes Afriques-Mondes in neighboring Burkina Faso, a country that experienced two coups in 2022. Kere told DW that the demands that Niger’s insurgents made shortly after the coup on Wednesday were not clear.
“The political situation there is not nearly as threatening as in other countries,” Kere said. “Even the challenge to imperialism was not in fact sufficiently developed in Niger to justify this coup. And, if we analyse the coup plotters’ explanation of their takeover, we don’t see any fundamental motive that could justify this takeover.” In his statement, Tchiani repeated that the coup was motivated by the “ongoing deterioration of the security situation.”
Close observers of Niger disagree with that statement. “Compared to 2021 and 2022, we can say that 2023 is one of the best years in terms of security policy,” the political analyst Alkassoum Abdourahmane told DW. “This spurious argument, as used in other Sahelian countries in relation to coups d’etat, is, I believe, inadequate in the case of Niger.”
The security researcher Moussa Zangarou also told DW that the situation had improved so far in 2023. However, he said, 12 people were killed last week in various places in the triborder region with Mali and Burkina Faso. “So the security situation is extremely worrying,” Zangarou said. “Whoever comes to power will ultimately fail if they don’t take the security issue seriously.”
Military governments are in power in both neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso following coups. And, while Kaou Abdrahamane Diallo, the party secretary of the junta-affiliated PACP in Mali, condemns the coup in Niger, he also told DW that there could be advantages to a military government in Niger. “Burkina Faso and Mali are already working hand in hand,” he said, “and we can only hope that the new Nigerien rulers share our view of the situation, and that together we can overcome the challenge of terrorism.”
Niger’s EU allies do not share this optimism. They saw Bazoum as a reliable and, above all, democratically legitimate partner in the Sahel, especially after the coups in Mali and Burkina Faso. In 2022, France transferred its remaining soldiers from Mali to Niger. Germany is also organizing for Bundeswehr troops to withdraw from Mali by the end of this year, and had been collaborating on the establishment of a new training mission in Niger. These plans are now likely to be reassessed.
