Editorial: Being hopeful in the time of uncertainty

His speech had the mark of an acceptance speech, delivered with the promise of providing better governance and with an eye firmly fixed on the future, one that was headlined with the promise of catapulting India’s economy into the $5 trillion stratosphere.

This year’s Independence Day speech, however, was delivered under the shadow of a somewhat anxious and relatively downbeat national mood. The novel coronavirus has plunged the economy into a state of despair and despite some green shoots, there is no early prospect of returning to a phase of robust and sustained growth. The first year of the Modi 2.0 was marked with serious controversies and unrest – the nullification of Article 370, the anti-CAA protests, a sharp rise in unemployment, responding to Chinese belligerence, and the misuse of the UAPA to crack down on dissidence and social activism. There was probably not enough in these fractured uncertain times to spin an entire speech around a central theme and so Modi chose to do what made more sense in such circumstances – touch on a diverse set of issues.

In terms of novel initiatives, the setting up of a National Digital Health Mission, backed by the issue of health ID smart cards for all, is a bold way to create a countrywide health architecture. The move has certain obvious benefits for patients, doctors, hospitals, and insurance companies. Even though the details of the proposal have not been spelt out, it is unlikely that such an ambitious proposal will be possible to implement without riding on the identity and financial backbones of Aadhaar and Jan Dhan. It will be no surprise then if this generates another round of opposition with questions raised about how this impacts privacy and the need for Aadhaar-linkages.

In stressing the importance of self-reliance, Modi was replaying familiar themes. On the one hand, he believes India should be a manufacturing hub for the rest of the world. On the other, he has batted for using the large domestic market to boost the supply side, with his vocal for local slogan. Finding this sort of economic balance – in fact, any sort of economic improvement – will depend on the short term on the vagaries and whims of the coronavirus. The numbers in India suggest that incidence is far from peaking, even though some badly affected cities and regions have begun to flatten the curve. Like other leaders in the world, Modi talked of the three vaccines being tested in India with a distinct sense of hopefulness.

It may take another few months before any COVID-19 vaccine is rolled out for mass distribution. But as the UN said, given the spread of the pandemic, a safe and effective vaccine is the only thing that can return the world to a semblance of normalcy. Until then, the coronavirus will impact everything – from employment numbers and mental health problems, on the one hand, to political reputations and electoral fortunes, on the other. And yes of course, it will determine the thematic contours of Modi’s Independence Day speech in 2021 as well.