Editorial: Last bastion of the Left

A loss here will diminish even further an already weakened Left, which is struggling to remain politically relevant in a changing political landscape. For the Congress, it provides a huge opportunity to signal it remains a political force as well as counter charges that it is in a state of slow and irreparable decline. For the BJP, which is a distant third force and has far less skin in the game, a few seats and an acceptable vote share may be enough to signal that it could be a serious challenger in the future. 

For over four decades, the State has swung every five years between the two major Fronts, a pattern that suggests the presence of a strong anti-incumbency sentiment. This poses a challenge for the ruling LDF, but there are reasons to believe it has a chance of overcoming the encumbrance of history. The UDF may have decimated the LDF in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, winning 19 out of 20 seats, but a general election presents a different political dynamic. The 2019 election was determined with an eye on the Centre, and presented itself as a choice between the Congress and the BJP, leading the State to prefer the former. Also, the Congress at the State-level is marred by factionalism and a lack of direction, reflected in senior leader PC Chacko’s recent decision to quit and rejoin the NCP (which is a part of the LDF). 

The Left is not without its share of problems. There may be an element of political vendetta in the manner in which the gold smuggling case is being pursued, but there is no doubt that what transpired could have happened only with political patronage at very high places and the involvement of Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s office. The denial of party tickets by the CPM to key leaders as a result of the two-term policy and the less-than-impressive performance on checking the spread of the coronavirus are also issues that could have an impact. 

While opinion polls have shown the LDF comfortably ahead of the UDF, it is important to remember that Assembly elections in Kerala are won by the thinnest of margins; as a result, polls have got it wrong very often before. Also, the fate of the elections may depend in a way, on the performance of the BJP, which over the past few years, has won over sections of the Hindu community, particularly the Nairs and the Ezhavas, at the cost of the CPM. Also, Kerala voters have displayed a proclivity for strategic voting and it is possible that in many constituencies, BJP supporters end up casting their vote for the Congress, which in their view, may constitute the lesser evil. All this makes Kerala a difficult State to call, even if Pinarayi Vijayan is better placed than many of his LDF predecessors to secure a second term.