Market Outlook: New Govt, IIP, PMI data and Fed meet key triggers for next week

NEW DELHI: Last Week, Indian equity markets witnessed high volatility sessions due to an unexpected outcome in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

National Stock Exchange (NSE) benchmark Nifty was within the range of 21,300-23,300 points, the widest after May 2020.

A new government is being formed on Sunday and it is believed that stability can be seen in the market for next week.

The outlook for the market will be guided by the major domestic and global economic data.

Retail inflation (CPI and Index of Industrial Production) data may be released on June 12. The retail inflation rate in March and April was 4.85 per cent and 4.83 per cent respectively. Economists believe that in May this rate will be 4.8 per cent. The IIP rate is expected to be 3.9 per cent in April, which was earlier 4.9 per cent.

Globally, significant events are scheduled for June 12, 2024, including the announcement of US core and consumer price inflation figures, alongside the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) economic projections. The Fed may keep the interest rates between 5.25 to 5.50 per cent. The first interest rate cut may be seen in September or December. At the same time, important data related to the economy of Japan, the UK and China may also come next week.

Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst at Swastika Investmart Ltd, said, "Nifty staged impressive rebounds from their respective 200-day exponential moving averages (200-DMA). Nifty is nearing its all-time high of 23338, which acts as immediate resistance. A break above this level could propel the index towards 23500 and even 23800. On the downside, the 23000-22800 zone offers immediate support, with the crucial 20-DMA around 22600 acting as a stronger floor."