Rupee falls 4 paise to close at 84.06 against US dollar

MUMBAI: Rupee traded in a narrow range and settled for the day lower by 4 paise to 84.06 against the US dollar on Thursday, pressured by foreign fund outflows, a negative trend in domestic equities and broad strength of the American currency.

Forex traders said rupee witnessed range-bound trade as weak domestic markets and a strong US dollar weighed on the domestic currency, while a decline in crude oil prices and contained geopolitical tensions cushioned the downside.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 84.01 and traded in a narrow range of 83.99 and 84.07 and finally settled for the day at 84.06, lower by 4 paise over its previous close of 84.02.

"We expect the rupee to trade with a negative bias on strong dollar and weak domestic markets. FII outflows may further pressurise the rupee. However, soft crude oil prices and contained geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may support the rupee at lower levels," said Anuj Choudhary – Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

Traders may take cues from retail sales, industrial production and weekly unemployment claims data from the US, Choudhary said, adding that USD-INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 83.85 to Rs 84.30.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was marginally up by 0.01 per cent to 103.59 points.

"Dollar index rose as China's stimulus failed to impress the investors. Weak euro ahead of the ECB's monetary policy meeting decision also supported the American currency. ECB is expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps," Choudhary said.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, increased 0.50 per cent to USD 74.59 per barrel in futures trade.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex declined 494.75 points, or 0.61 per cent, to close at 81,006.61 points, while the Nifty was down 221.45 points, or 0.89 per cent, to 24,749.85 points.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Thursday, as they offloaded shares worth Rs 7,421.40 crore, according to exchange data.

Maneesh Sharma, AVP - Commodities & Currencies, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers, said that overseas investors have sold USD 8 billion worth of domestic stocks in October so far, the highest monthly outflow in over four years.

Also, inflows related to Hyundai Motor India's IPO undershot market expectations, with market sources pointing to muted overnight dollar-rupee swap rates that signalled muted inflows.

He further said that Asian currencies were down as the dollar hovered close to its highest level in 11 months, boosted by heightened odds of US election victory for former President Donald Trump and expectations of a 25 bps Federal Reserve rate cut next month.

"With slightly negative sentiments for domestic equities, rupee is likely to trade under pressure but heavy declines up to 84.15-84.20 seems unlikely, given the RBI's active intervention at higher levels," Sharma said.

On the macroeconomic front, the country's merchandise exports rose marginally by 0.5 per cent to USD 34.58 billion in September, which helped in shrinking the trade deficit to a five-month low at USD 20.78 billion.

According to official data released on Wednesday, imports also increased by 1.6 per cent to USD 55.36 billion in September compared to USD 54.49 billion in the year-ago period.