Is Japan’s vax drive in time for Olympics?

The vaccination pace is quickening even as the young remain hesitant amid an anti-vaccination misinformation campaign and officials have slowed vaccination reservations as demand outpaces supply. Add in continued political and bureaucratic bungling and the arrival of highly contagious coronavirus variants, and there are worries that the government’s effort to ramp up vaccinations before the Olympics will fall short. Thousands of private companies and some universities have joined the vaccination drive, complementing the government’s effort to prioritise the full vaccination of elderly people by the end of July.

The acceleration is causing worries about a supply shortage, and further progress is now uncertain. Taro Kono, the minister in charge of inoculations, on Wednesday abruptly announced a temporary suspension of many new vaccination reservations, saying vaccine distribution cannot keep pace with demand. “It’s a tightrope situation,” Kono said. Much will depend on whether the nation’s young embrace the vaccination program.

Even as more people are getting the jabs, and fully inoculating the country’s 36 million senior citizens now looks likely, younger people are still largely unvaccinated, and their movements during summer vacations and the Olympics could trigger another upsurge of infections, propelled by the more contagious Delta strain, which is expected to be dominant by then, experts say.

A resurgence of cases among the young has already begun in Tokyo, which reported 619 new cases Wednesday, up from the last seven-day average of 405. The inoculation drive could lose steam if younger people, many of whom believe they are less likely to develop serious symptoms, don’t get inoculated. Skeptics are sometimes swayed by rumours and online misinformation about vaccines. “How we might encourage younger generations to get vaccinated is a big issue,” Kono said. Officials plan to reach out to them on social media to provide accurate information. Despite worries that things will slow again, observers are acknowledging an unexpected turnaround in the vaccine campaign. As recently as early May, only a quarter million shots were being given daily, with only 2-3% of the population fully vaccinated. The pace has since picked up to hit 1 million a day, a target set by Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga that was once widely considered overly ambitious.

As of Tuesday, about 8.2% of the country was fully vaccinated. While impressive here, given the slow rollout, it’s still low compared to the U.K.’s 46.3%, America’s 44.9% and the global average of 10%, according to Our World in Data. The workplace vaccination program kicked off Monday. The government has received applications from nearly 4,000 sites run by companies and universities, covering more than 15 million employees, their families and students, the Prime Minister’s Office said.

Suga now has a new target of fully vaccinating everyone who wants one by October or November. Officials haven’t said when new vaccination reservations may resume, but have noted the overall timeline for the program won’t be affected. Japan’s vaccination rollout started with medical workers in mid-February, months behind many other countries. The delay was because of additional clinical testing required for foreign-developed vaccines.

Inoculations for the elderly started in mid-April but were slowed by supply and distribution uncertainties, bungled reservation procedures and a lack of medical workers to give shots.

Japan, still without any home-developed vaccines ready for use, relies on imports. Supply has increased from May, and despite earlier expectations of vaccine hesitancy in general, senior citizens fearing the virus have rushed to get shots. Even if vaccinations climb significantly in coming months, waves of infections could still occur as long as the young are largely unvaccinated, said Dr. Shigeru Omi, a top government COVID-19 advisor.

Associated Press