Editorial: Why the Kerala model may not work in Tamil Nadu

Chennai

Since then, there has been a clamour for TN administrators to follow the Kerala model. Even actor-politician and head of Makkal Needhi Maiam Kamal Haasan, while criticising the state government for being ineffective in containing the virus spread, urged TN to follow the Kerala model and learn from them. While the Kerala model has certainly been effective there, it is unlikely to work in Tamil Nadu as there are vast differences in both geography and demography of the two states.

Let’s understand what exactly the Kerala-model is. It’s a straightforward adaptation of WHO protocol for COVID-19: test, trace, isolate and support. On January 27 this year, when the first case arrived from Wuhan, the state had already prepared a set of protocols based on WHO guidelines and its past experience battling the deadly Nipah virus in 2018. The exposure played a crucial role in preparing the state machinery in knowing what to expect with Coronavirus.

Tamil Nadu had also adapted the same WHO protocol while framing its guidelines on battling the virus. But the ground situation isn’t the same. For starters, Kerala state spans across 38,863 square kilometres while Tamil Nadu stretches up to 1,30,058 square kilometres i.e., more than three times the size. The population of Kerala is less than half of Tamil Nadu’s. By the sheer size of it, containing anything here takes thrice the effort. But the game-changer is that Kerala does not have a bustling metropolis like Chennai. The most congested city/town in Kerala is Thiruvananthapuram which boasts of a population density of 1509 persons per square kilometre. In comparison, Chennai with a population density of 26,553 per square kilometre literally means that over 26 people share a little more than just 10 square feet of space in this coastal city. In terms of containing a pandemic, contact tracing a cluster in Chennai is at least twenty times more complicated even more so in highly congested parts of the city like Royapuram etc., where population density is much higher than city average. And that is exactly why the WHO protocols and a robust healthcare system alone have not been enough to contain the virus in TN for. In fact, if one were to take Chennai out of the equation, COVID-19 has been as contained in TN as it is in Kerala.

What the TN government actually needs to do if it has to control the spread of COVID-19 is to study other highly populated cities of the world that escaped the pandemic such as Beijing and Shanghai which have the highest population density in China but not as many cases. One factor that worked in favour of these cities is the population is largely literate and thus well aware of the dangers of a COVID-19 outbreak which made them follow guidelines religiously.

In contrast, even after more than 10 weeks of lockdown and with cases piling up by the thousands every day, people still freely roam around without wearing masks or worse, using them to shield their necks instead of their mouths and nose. And this is a lot more evident in poorer neighbourhoods which are often the most congested. In the long run, it is about time the city’s administrators worked on reducing the population density, especially in the lower income neighbourhoods, for over 25 people sharing 10 square feet space might not just cause spread of Coronavirus but even common cold and conjunctivitis.