G7 Hosting duties: Can Japan walk the talk on climate?

STUART BRAUN

In 1997, the Japanese city of Kyoto hosted a UN climate conference that set the world on the path to tackling the climate crisis. But despite the historic importance of the Kyoto Protocol agreement, Japan is no longer the poster child of climate action.

At this weekend’s meeting of G7 climate change and energy ministers in Sapporo, Japan — a prelude to the G7 summit in Hiroshima from May 19 —the nation is being asked to quicken its energy transition. With the G7 group committing in May 2022 to decarbonise near 100% of electricity by 2035, and to end fossil fuel subsidies by 2025, can Japan guide these goals to fruition?

Japan, the world’s fifth-biggest CO2 emitter, has recently committed to carbon neutrality by 2050, but also wants to extend the lifetime of both nuclear and fossil fuel power plants. The plan is to co-fire coal and gas plants with lower emission ammonia and hydrogen.

Climate campaigners Oil Change International note that ammonia and hydrogen will be mostly produced with fossil fuels, and warn that Japan is exporting the polluting technology across Asia.

Japan included the scheme in the draft communique for the meeting of G7 climate ministers. But the UK, France and Canada have since demanded the language be changed so ammonia and hydrogen burning is only recommended when in line with the 1.5C target for temperature rise, reported the Financial Times.

Meanwhile, though Japan’s minister of economy, trade and industry, Yasutoshi Nishimura, stated that G7 ministers agree “we must accelerate decarbonisation” to avoid the worst impacts of global heating, he also said that fossil gas will be a necessary transition fuel for at least 10-15 years.

Could nuclear energy make a comeback — despite the 2011 Fukushima disaster?

In 2021, only around 6% of Japan’s energy came from nuclear power, reflecting the near total shutdown of the industry following the meltdown at Fukushima in 2011 when capacity was around 30%.

While fossil fuels have largely plugged this energy gap, Japan is reversing course on its planned nuclear phase-out, the government calling nuclear a “highly effective energy source for decarbonisation,” noted the Renewable Energy Institute (REI), a Japanese climate think tank.

Japan plans to increase nuclear capacity to 20-22% of the national energy mix. The government has proposed building a new nuclear model reactor in addition to extending the life of existing plants. However, nuclear power is unlikely to deliver more than around 10% of Japan’s electricity by 2030, notes REI — due in part to the difficulty getting approvals from resistant local governments.

Moreover, the construction of expensive “next-generation” nuclear reactors cannot likely begin until the 2030s and could run into 2040s, setting back decarbonisation goals.

REI this week published a proposal on a “2035 Energy Mix” that concludes that at least 80% of Japan’s electricity in 2035 can come from renewable energy sources. “We do not need to rely on and can phase out nuclear power as Germany is planning,” said Yuri Okubo, a senior researcher at REI.

Japan’s commitment to both gas and coal-fired power, and its massive ongoing fossil fuel investments globally, has caused campaigners to question its leadership. “The Japanese government is working to expand the use of fossil fuels across Asia under the guise of ‘decarbonisation’,” wrote clean energy campaigners, Oil Change International, in a report on Japan’s energy policy. “The Japanese strategy would block the transition to clean energy, worsen the climate crisis, undermine energy security, and harm communities and ecosystems.”