Editorial: Is a strong man sufficient?

India is having an election of incongruities. There is sharp disputation over several aspects of the election but near certainty about its overall outcome. So far this year, eight Big Media outlets have reported the results of their pre-election surveys. All of them have tipped the BJP-led NDA to win, with a vote-share margin ranging from 7 per cent to 15.9 per cent. Ten polls have given seat projections: The lowest number awarded to the NDA is 335—well short of the self-advertised ‘abki baar 400 paar’ and therefore a moral defeat, but a comfortable majority all the same.

Yet, a deeper look at the voter responses indicates a not-too-happy electorate. Across surveys, especially those that cared to examine perceptions on socioeconomic indicators as well as outright voting preferences, it’s clear that Indians are unhappy they are finding it difficult to get jobs, having to pay more for essentials and seeing the fruits of development delivered only to the rich. There is wide agreement that corruption has increased, and that trust in institutions has dwindled. The Mood of the Nation poll by India Today-C Voter in February found that 47 per cent of voters think that the Modi regime has been unable to bring down corruption and 46 per cent say there has been misuse of the investigating agencies.

These perceptions are acutely felt among rural voters compared to urban, and poorer voters compared to those better-off. The fact that there is dissatisfaction and that it is greater in demographic classes that conventionally have higher voting percentages should worry the ruling party.

There is much else in the fine text of these surveys that should warm the hearts of liberals opposed to the BJP. There is great support to the proposition that India belongs to people of all religions and that Muslims should not be shut out of reservations for Scheduled Castes.

But how does this sobriety on important issues, echoes of which are found in the Lok Niti-CSDS survey reported last week as well, square with the endorsement of the BJP-led NDA as reported by Big Media? How does a nation whose trust in its Election Commission has halved since 2019, 45% of whose voters think EVMs can be tampered with, repose that same trust in a party that caused that loss of trust? It’s the big conundrum of this election.

Fans of PM Modi will reason that his personality bridges the deficit of logic we see in the poll data. It’s an appealing proposition, neatly captured by the coinage ‘Modi hai to mumkin hai’ (it’s possible, because it’s Modi). However, do voters suspend their own satisfaction to vote for an ineffective man they admire? Conventional wisdom has it that the voter is a selfish beast and thinks no further than his own interest.

Recent research should give us pause. Last week, the International Institute of Democracy and Electoral Assistance put out a report that fewer than half of the voters in 11 of the 19 countries surveyed, including India, believed their most recent election was free and fair. In eight of these, more people took a favourable view of “a strong leader who doesn’t have to bother with parliament or elections” than those who took an unfavourable view. That finding recalls a 2017 Pew Research Center study that found that 55 per cent of Indian voters thought that rule by a strong leader would be good, 53 per cent thought military rule was a good idea. That is the real issue in this election.