New reality: Myanmar without Aung San Suu Kyi

•  TOMMY WALKER

Aung San Suu Kyi has been fighting for democracy in Myanmar for over three decades. She rose to political prominence during the 8888 uprising — named for the date it took place, August 8, 1988 — and for many she has been the beacon of hope that the country will one day become a true democracy. But at 78 years old, Suu Kyi now finds herself behind bars following the 2021 military coup, and her family says she is in poor health. Some in the pro-democracy movement are thus preparing for a Myanmar after Suu Kyi.

Suu Kyi has rarely been seen during her detention, which started more than two-and-a-half years ago. She was sentenced to 33 years in prison on a variety of charges imposed by the junta, although six years were removed following a partial pardon. Experts and observers say her charges and sentencing, which included electoral fraud and corruption, were politically motivated. Sources close to Suu Kyi say she has chronic gum disease, which in recent weeks has gotten worse, and that she also suffers from low blood pressure. Suu Kyi’s son, Kim Aris, says his mother has been vomiting, suffers from dizziness, and is being denied access to recommended health care.

A junta spokesman says Suu Kyi’s poor health is a rumor and that she receives regular check-ups from doctors while in prison. David Scott Mathieson, a Myanmar analyst in Thailand, says Myanmar must face a new reality without Suu Kyi. “Despite genuine concern over her reportedly deteriorating health, it’s obvious that Myanmar is now in a post-Aung San Suu Kyi reality. One can wallow in the unfairness of this, as it was the coup hastening an almost inevitable decline of her influence or lean into the reality that a new generation of political thought and action is making Suu Kyi irrelevant,” Mathieson said.

After winning the Nobel Peace Prize in 1991 for her fight for democracy in Myanmar, Suu Kyi became a worldwide name. Her political party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), emerged from Myanmar’s 1988 democracy uprising against military rule and after 15 years under house arrest Suu Kyi was released, eventually leading her party to win Myanmar’s general elections in 2015 and 2020.

Throughout her political career, she has served as Myanmar’s State Councillor and as a Minister of Foreign Affairs, while she is seen as a democratic icon by many in Myanmar and still retains strong support.

But Suu Kyi’s international reputation took a major hit after she was heavily criticized for her denial of the Rohingya genocide in Myanmar in 2015. Mathieson says her influence and legacy were already waning prior to her recent imprisonment. “Her political legacy has been burned beyond repair, and she is the primary agent of that self-immolation. This includes not just her denial of the atrocities against the Rohingya and choosing inexplicably to defend Myanmar at The Hague, but also her manifold failings as a political leader,” Mathieson told DW.

“She presided over a cult of personality where subservience was rewarded, and expertise devalued over loyalty,” he added. “She didn’t just fail to make alliances with other political parties, civil society and armed insurgents in a broad front against the military, she actively made enemies and froze out potential allies.” However, Aung Thu Nyein, a political analyst from Myanmar, says the party doesn’t exist without its leader.