Will EU's normalization push with Syria help Bashar Assad?

Jennifer Holleis

For eight European countries, the time seems ripe to change their strategy toward Syria. Earlier this week, the foreign ministers of Italy and Austria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Cyprus, Greece, Slovenia and Slovakia said they are willing to thaw ties with Syrian President Bashar Assad.

In a joint letter, they suggested creating the position of an EU-Syria envoy who would be tasked with reinstalling a Syrian ambassador to Brussels and designating 10 so-called "safe zones" within Syria's government-held regions to which Syrian migrants in Europe could be returned.

Although Germany was not among the signatories, one of the country's top administrative courts ruled this week that there "is no longer a general danger to all civilians from the long-running conflict in Syria." Yet human rights observers, analysts and the UN top envoy for Syria have all pointed out that Syria is neither safe for the population, nor for returning refugees.

"Syria remains in a state of profound conflict, complexity and division," UN Special Envoy Geir Pedersen told the UN Security Council this week. "It is riddled with armed actors, listed terrorist groups, foreign armies and front lines […] and civilians are still victims of violence and subject to extensive human rights abuses, a protracted state of displacement and dire humanitarian conditions."

And yet, the European willingness to reengage with Syria — after severing official relations with Damascus as a consequence of Syria's government's brutal crackdown on protesters in 2011 which led to an ongoing civil war — is just the latest in a series of rapprochements.

In 2023, Syria was readmitted to the Arab League, a group of 22 countries that had also shunned Syria for some 12 years. And earlier this month, Assad scheduled a meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has for years been backing the opposition, which continues to fight Syrian government forces in the country's northwest.

"Renewing ties with Europe would boost Assad's legitimacy as ruler and his claim that Syria is a safe country," Kelly Petillo, Middle East researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told DW. "Only, Assad is far from being the winner [of the war] as Syria remains territorially and politically fragmented and it is absolutely not a given that the Assad regime will return to power all over the Syrian territory," Petillo added.

While Assad's forces have recaptured some 60% of the country with the help of Russia and Iran, the country's northeast remains under Kurdish rule, and the northwest is the last bastion of the Syrian opposition. In the first half of 2024, attacks by the terrorist group "Islamic State" in Syria have doubled. As experts point out, normalizing ties does not only mean a political shift by other countries.

"It also requires diplomatic commitment by Assad as he is fearful of having millions of refugees returned who are opposing him," said Petillo, adding that due to the country's dire economic situation, it would also be also very hard to cater for these many people as a state.

According to recent numbers by the UN Refugee Agency, an estimated 16.7 million Syrians need humanitarian assistance. More than half of the population remains displaced from their homes, including some 5 million refugees living in neighboring countries and 7.2 million internally displaced inside Syria.

And yet, normalizing ties with Europe and designating safe zones for returnees would most likely also mean an end to Europe's far-reaching sanctions on Syria, which have been exacerbating the economic situation for years. According to the latest Syria Economic Monitor by the World Bank, continued funding shortfalls and limited access to humanitarian assistance have further drained the ability of households to meet basic needs amid inflation.

In turn, "any initiative to improve the economic situation for the Syrian population is a step away from the ongoing economic and social collapse," said Nanar Hawach, a senior analyst for Syria at the International Crisis Group, an independent organization working to prevent wars.

Hawach is confident that a stronger economy would reduce the population's dependence on political entities or joining armed groups to make a livelihood.

However, the benefits of eased or ended sanctions would not be felt in the whole country. "If ties with the Assad regime are normalized, aid will go through regime channels only," said Petillo. This would continue to exacerbate the situation in areas that are not under the control of the regime.

"We are already massively underfunded," Ian Ridley, head of office at the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs in Turkey, told DW. "I saw the consequences of this a couple of days ago when I visited northern Aleppo [which is under the control of the opposition — Editor's note] and spoke to displaced people who are struggling with the withdrawal of services."

Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of the Middle East & North Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said "the idea of safe zones without meaningful security guarantees shouldn't be acceptable." "The regime has been unwilling to provide this," he said, adding that "we see Syrians going back and being disappeared and even killed."

Despite the dangers in regime-controlled areas, Barnes-Dacey does see the need for a European policy reset toward Syria. "European policy is currently in limbo without any sense of strategic direction or ability to improve the situation," he said. In his view, however, Assad is not going to make meaningful concessions. "So, this is about looking for workarounds," Barnes-Dacey added.

"It's about deploying the cards we have to wedge open some space for security and economic improvements for Syrians on the ground rather than forcing dramatic political change, which clearly isn't going to happen," he said.