Fertiliser exports could fall 16% annually on supply-side disruptions

NEW DELHI: Seaborne fertiliser shipments for various export countries/territories during September 2022 stood at 11.9 million tonnes, which is a drop of 17 per cent year-on-year, a report said on Tuesday.

According to the report Commodities at Sea from S&P Global Market Intelligence, global fertiliser flows have been impacted by high input costs (such as LNG prices) on the supply side, while climate issues impact the demand side. During the first nine months of 2022, total fertiliser shipments from the reported export countries/territories stood at 116.0 million tonne, a decline of 8 per cent y-o-y.

The report said Brazil and India were the top two importers of seaborne fertilisers during September 2022, accounting for a combined 35 per cent against 45 per cent during the previous year of global shipments.

Fertiliser shipments from Russia went down 30 per cent to 1.6 million tonne, shipments from Morocco dropped 22 per cent to 1.4 mt, shipments from mainland China went down 51 per cent to 525,000 tonnes, shipments from Peru dropped 35 per cent to 256,000 tonnes, shipments from Israel dropped 43 per cent to 203,000 tonnes, shipments from Algeria went down 23 per cent to 151,000 tonnes, shipments from South Africa dropped 39 per cent to 54,000 tonnes and shipments from Latvia were down 43 per cent to 42,000 tonnes.

During the reported month, no shipments were observed from Lithuania which had shipments of 979,000 tonnes a year ago, from the Netherlands which had shipments of 103,000 tonnes a year ago and from Mexico which had shipments of 60,000 tonnes in the previous year, the report stated.

The reason behind the halt in shipments from Lithuania was the Lithuanian railway ban on the transit of Belarussian fertilisers.

Global fertiliser shipments in October 2022 and the last quarter of 2022 are forecast at 12.5 mt (down 23 pc y/y) and 38 mt (down 16 pc), respectively. For the whole year of 2022, global fertiliser shipments are forecast at 154 mt (versus 170.8 mt in 2021 and 148.0 mt in 2020).

S&P Global Market Intelligence Lead Bulk Commodities Analyst Associate Director said, "Global fertiliser availability this year has been severely impacted by a disruption in shipments from Belarus, lower supplies from mainland China, as well a Canadian rail strike. As a result of tighter fertiliser supply/demand balance in addition to the increase in raw material costs have led to a surge in fertiliser prices in the international markets."

He said the global fertiliser shipments in Q4 2022 were forecast to remain 16 per cent lower year-on-year and the downside risks included the high cost of natural gas globally as well as demand destruction across the markets with looming fears of leftover high-priced inventory, coupled with harsh weather and declining crops and commodities' futures prices.