European stocks rise as investors assess politics, economic data

GERMANY: European stocks climbed on Monday as investors assessed uncertainties around U.S. debt ceiling talks and a runoff election in Turkey, while parsing data for clues on the state of the global economy.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index closed 0.3% higher, after hitting a two-week high during the session. The benchmark index has largely traded in a tight range this month as investors seek hints on how long major central banks will keep hiking interest rates to tame inflation.

While banks largely notched gains, shares of Spain's BBVA - among the European banks most exposed to Turkey - slumped 4.2% as the country's presidential election appeared headed for a runoff vote. "Overall the outlook is still pretty positive, but we cannot forget that we have come from a time of massive amounts of government stimulus and are still battling high and persistent inflation," said Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com.

"Investors still don't think that we are out of the woods, and are bracing themselves for what may come in the next two or three years." Data showed Germany's wholesale price index fell slightly in April, the first year-on-year drop since December 2020, while another set showed consumer prices in Sweden eased more than expected in April.

Meanwhile, euro zone industrial production fell by far more than expected in March as output of capital goods plunged, although the sharp reduction appeared to be a result of figures from Ireland. While the U.S. Federal Reserve has left the door open for a pause in its monetary tightening cycle, the European Central Bank signalled that there were more rate hikes on the cards.

Rapid ECB rate hikes lowered inflation modestly last year, but the biggest impact is expected only in 2024, the central bank said in an Economic Bulletin article, reaffirming a long-held view that policy works with big lags. The central bank has raised rates by 375 basis points since July to curb stubborn inflation that is expected to take until 2025 to touch the 2% target.

Investors also monitored developments around U.S. debt ceiling talks between President Joe Biden and Republican House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy this week, hoping to find common ground on spending levels and energy regulations to avert a devastating default Among the top gainers, AXA, Europe's second-biggest insurance company, advanced 2.4% on a better-than-expected first-quarter key capital buffer measure.

Evotec jumped 4.7% after the biotech firm on Friday said it expected to return to Germany's midcap index MDAX as early as June. On the flip side, John Wood Group slumped 34.4% after Apollo Global Management said it would not proceed with a takeover of the British engineering services firm on its fifth attempt.