Editorial: Better safe than sorry

Earlier in April, classified war documents describing secret American and Nato plans to build up the Ukrainian army prior to a planned offensive against Russia were posted on social media channels such as Discord and 4chan. Senior officials of the Joe Biden administration had revealed this, adding that the Pentagon was investigating who may have been behind the leak of the documents that had found its way to Telegram and Twitter as well. Per top officials in the Ukrainian government, the leak of war plans seemed to be a concerted Russian ploy to discredit a counter-offensive.

Russian military bloggers on the other hand pointed out that it would be a grave error to trust any information contained in the document, as it could very well be the handiwork of Western intelligence aimed at misleading the Russian command. The contents of the document had been modified in certain parts from their original format, as per military analysts. In some cases, American estimates of the Ukrainian casualties of the war have been overstated while estimates of Russian casualties have been downplayed. The US administration has been jolted by the development, which brought to light unflattering and confidential details pertaining to American allies such as Israel, South Korea, countries in Africa and west Asia, as well as Beijing’s burgeoning cyber attack infrastructure.

Observers noted that some critical data describing Ukraine’s air defences losing steam due to a shortage of missiles in February, and its supposedly top-secret plans of launching a spring counter offensive against Russia, towards the end of April have also emerged as sore points in the military engagement. The disclosures in the original documents, which have been presented in the form of photos of charts of expected weapons deliveries, battalion and troop strengths, and other warfare plans offer the impression of a significant breach of US intelligence in its efforts to help Ukraine.

In the third week of April, American federal authorities apprehended a member of the Air National Guard in connection with the leaked war documents, and charged him under the US Espionage Act. Officials surmise it might be a challenge to assess the direct impact of the disclosures on the frontlines of the war in the days to come considering how unpredictable the course of events have been so far. Russia has been struggling to make inroads in eastern Ukraine, and its capabilities of mounting large scale attacks had been called into question. In recent days, Russia has stepped up its strikes in southern Ukraine, targeting mostly liberated areas of the Kherson region, where as many as 23 civilians were killed by shelling this week. Russia also shot down two drones that were allegedly targeting the Kremlin. Both Ukraine and the US have denied any responsibility of being involved with the strike.

For a while now, it was presumed that Russia had been trailing the US when it came to the question of gathering military and political intelligence in Ukraine. The leak of the documents dispels any such sense of superiority that the US could lay claims to. What it has done instead is spur a sense of distrust between America and global powers, who might be reconsidering the security of their partnerships. It’s also a stumbling block for Ukraine, and its armed forces when confronting troops loyal to Moscow. In a milieu of warfare, America and its allies might have to look over their shoulders and adopt stringent protocols to restrict the dissemination of critical data.