Chaos theory

CHENNAI: One of the biggest challenges faced by any state administration during a high-profile public event, is ensuring that the programme transpires in an incident-free manner. On the face of it, one presumes that the Tamil Nadu government might have pressed all its agencies and bodies concerned into action on account of the IAF air show that was held on the Marina last Sunday.

Unfortunately, the extravaganza, a show of strength by the airborne division of the Indian Armed Forces, attended by around 15 lakh people, led to the unravelling of the state machinery.

The weekend outing was plagued by problems ranging from jam-packed transport services, to gridlocked roads, unavailability of basic amenities such as drinking water, and restroom facilities at the beach, compounded by the phenomenon of a sea of people converging at one long shoreline devoid of any protection from the relentless assault of the mid-afternoon heat.

Amidst the aerobatics, five people lost their lives, while 100 others were treated as outpatients in government hospitals, having suffered from dehydration and heat stroke.

The casualties on account of the infrastructural lapses, poor coordination and deployment of resources offered fodder to the Opposition to pull up the government. Politicians lamented that despite several meetings being held between the Indian Air Force and the TN government regarding the conduct of the 92nd IAF Day celebrations, precautionary measures were not taken. It’s a loaded statement when you consider that it was just three months ago that 121 people were killed after a stampede broke out at a religious event organised by a self-styled guru in Hathras, UP. The organisers, who had flouted several norms, had crammed 2.5 lakh people into a venue where only 80,000 were permitted.

One must laud the efforts of the TN govt officials and the volunteers who ensured that there were no stampedes at the air show. Although, it seems unlikely that the administration was caught unaware regarding the quantum of people that would turn up, as Chennai had previously hosted an IAF air show in Sept 2000, which drew a crowd of 13 lakh people, and was conducted seamlessly.

That was almost a quarter of a decade ago, when the climes were considerably cooler. A report by the New Delhi-based Centre for Science and Environment says the country experienced extreme weather on nearly 90% of the days last year. Between March and June 2024, the nation experienced record-breaking temperatures, with 37 cities surpassing 45°C. The combination of extreme weather and packed gatherings is a recipe for disaster, something witnessed during the Lok Sabha elections this year, when 58 people succumbed to heatstroke on one single day.

About 733 people have died in India this year as a result of extreme heat-induced health complications, while over 40,000 people suffered heatstroke in 17 states.

An often-overlooked measure is that of the Wet Bulb Temperature, which is a combination of air temperature and humidity, which makes it feel warmer than the prevailing actual temperature.

In Chennai, Sunday’s temperature hovered around 34.3°C with a humidity of 73%, which led the WBT to hit 30.1°C, a level that is considered hazardous for human beings. Climate experts say that extreme heat in South Asia during the pre-monsoon season is becoming more frequent, something which has a bearing on this part of the country, which will experience the monsoon in a few weeks from now. The bottom line: State administrators must begin factoring in extreme weather when setting out to break records on crowd management metrics.