Editorial: Hot ballot

The Election Commission recently announced that the voter turnout in the first three phases of the Lok Sabha elections was 66.14 per cent, 66.71 per cent and 65.68 per cent, respectively. The ECI believes that heatwave conditions are one of the reasons for lower voter turnout in the last three phases as compared to the 2019 parliamentary polls. The 96 parliamentary constituencies that polled in the phase 4 of the LS Elections on Monday recorded a voter turnout of about 67.25 per cent. While the usual hours of voting are from 7 am to 6 pm, they were curtailed keeping in mind the terrain, time of sunset and security situation. One might recall that the average all-India turnout in 2019 was 67%.

In view of the hot weather and people's reluctance to step out in the noon, the ECI had extended the poll timing in some Telangana seats. Which brings us to the question: is there a correlation between higher temperatures and lower turnouts? The numbers so far suggest that the turnout has dipped marginally in phase 1 and phase 2 of the elections compared to the turnout in 2019. Overall, voter participation or turnout rate surged or remained the same in 32 of the 189 seats (out of a total 543 constituencies) that voted in two phases of the LS elections, compared to the 2019 polls. The rest have witnessed a dip in turnout. Compare this to the 2014 elections when 60 seats saw an increased turnout and 129 witnessed a dip.

Data from States, including those in the Gangetic plains, the central, western, eastern plains, and the peninsular regions which experienced a relatively hot summer sheds some more light on the phenomena. Constituencies in these regions (172 seats overall) witnessed a rise in temperature in 118 seats compared to 2019, and a dip only in 54 seats. In 2014, the increase in temperature was seen in 142 seats and a decrease in 30 seats compared to the previous elections. In Tamil Nadu, there were 35 seats (out of a total 39) in which turnouts decreased from 2019. And 35 seats witnessed a rise in temperature compared to 2019. Interestingly, in some states like Chhattisgarh, and to a minor extent in Karnataka, a higher turnout was witnessed in spite of a rise in temperature. On the contrary, in states like Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, turnouts had dipped in spite of a lower temperature in several seats.