Editorial: Howdy, Trump 2.0?

CHENNAI: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s reputation as a master of optics will be severely tested when he meets his ‘dear friend’ Donald Trump in Washington on Feb. 13. His fanbase is trumpeting the hastily arranged visit as a sign of the continuing chemistry between the two leaders. However, the current scenario is vastly different from Trump’s first term, when their backslapping bonhomie sufficed to lend a sense of optimism to the Indo-US bilateral relationship. This time, Trump is prosecuting an extreme agenda the sweep, speed and style of which has flummoxed most world leaders, including, surely, Modi himself.

Trump in his second term is threatening to turn things upside down, and it falls to Modi to secure India’s interests in any unfolding scenario.

Several heads of government have hurried to call on Trump in Washington in the mere three weeks since he was inaugurated. Most of them can be classed as leaders of client states of the USA. They’ve ranged from Nayib Bukele of El Salvador, who is offering to lodge all criminals of America in his prisons, to Binyamin Netanyahu of Israel, last seen at the White House looking sheepish as the American President spoke about clearing Gaza of all Palestinians and turning it into a riviera. By rushing to Washington in their wake, the Indian Prime Minister risks being seen in a similar light. However, India being no vassal state, the primary diplomatic task for Mr Modi is to avoid appearing to genuflect.

There are many important geopolitical and bilateral issues that the Indian side will be looking for clarity on in view of the change of guard in Washington. There are of course the tariffs threatened by Trump.

While most of the President’s actions in the past three weeks have targeted Mexico, Canada, China and the European Union, it would be naïve to hope India will not be subjected as well.

It’s not certain that the tariff reductions announced in Nirmala Sitharaman’s Union Budget last week— including on marginal things like Harley Davidson bikes—will satisfy Trump. Indian ministers have in recent weeks been heard talking about agreeing to import more oil and security and defence equipment from the USA. The Commerce Ministry is talking about a limited trade deal with the US.

Unmistakably, these signals of conciliation indicate that the Prime Minister is going to Washington in a distinctly appeasing mode towards the mercurial President. The biggest sign of this was the surprising announcement in the Union Budget that the Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage Act (CLNDA) will be amended to encourage private participation in nuclear power generation.

While the government has not been forthcoming on exactly what amendments will be brought in, there is every likelihood that the Modi administration is hoping this will serve as a blandishment to American and French business interests. The CLNDA was a controversial legislation passed by the Manmohan Singh government in 2011, stipulating damages to be borne by foreign suppliers of nuclear equipment. Even in its 2011 avatar, this act was a watered-down version of the stern draft suggested by a parliamentary committee. The BJP was against the act then, criticising the UPA government for kowtowing to Americans companies.

Hopefully, the Indian Prime Minister will stop well short of appeasement in this sojourn to America.

Hopefully, this is only a howdy visit to ‘my dear friend’.