Editorial: Republican recoil

The assassination attempt on former US president Donald Trump is an body blow to the deeply-cleaved politics of the world’s lone superpower. Its effects, however, will be felt far beyond the borders of the United States, impacting political dynamics in Europe, the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, and geopolitical relations with China. Overall, this recourse to violence threatens to rend asunder the little common ground that remained between right-wing populism and centre-left social democratic progressive sections in many countries worldwide. This latter aspect has implications for India, which too is a theatre of a violent political culture.

In the immediate term, the bid on Trump’s life will undoubtedly galvanise right-wing populists in the US and solidify support behind the presumptive Republican presidential candidate. The image of Trump with a bloodied ear, defiant fist raised amidst a throng of Secret Service agents, has already become a rallying symbol for his supporters. With the Democratic Party grappling with concerns over President Biden’s age, energised Trumpists are likely to issue a war cry in the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee on Monday. With only four months remaining to the presidential election, Democrats in disarray are going to struggle to find a viable response to the coming onslaught.

The assassination attempt is also likely to cause deep anxiety among Western European nations, particularly in light of Trump’s previous ambivalence towards NATO expansion. If he is elected again, his administration may adopt a more isolationist stance, reducing support for Ukraine in the war against Russia. The flow of funds to Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s war effort could ebb, and Trump may exert pressure on Ukraine to negotiate a peace settlement with Russia. The US’s European allies, themselves riven by ideological conflicts and heavily reliant on American security guarantees, would face increased uncertainty and potential weakening of their collective security framework.

For India, the implications of Trump’s possible return to power are multifaceted. Firstly, a Trump administration could initiate a tariff war with China, presenting both challenges and opportunities for India’s manufacturing sector. On one hand, increased tariffs could disrupt global supply chains, affecting cheap imports from China; on the other, they might provide India with a chance to position itself as an alternative manufacturing hub. Secondly, Trump may seek to strengthen the Quad alliance, a strategic partnership between the US, India, Japan, and Australia aimed at countering China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region. This could enhance India’s geopolitical leverage but also escalate regional tensions. Lastly, Trump’s tough stance on immigration could impact Indian H-1B visa seekers, potentially limiting opportunities for skilled professionals to work in the US, thereby reducing remittances.

From an ideological perspective, the attempted assassination is a stark reflection of a deteriorating political discourse worldwide. The normalisation of intolerance, insult, and invective by right-wing populists has set the stage for extreme actors to use violence as a trigger for the anarchy they crave. Trump himself bears some responsibility for creating this toxic environment, having frequently employed inflammatory rhetoric against opponents. This has provoked a counter-reaction from woke and liberal factions. This has created an escalating cycle of provocation and retaliation.

This incident holds a crucial lesson for the right-wing in India. Allowing political discourse to degenerate into violence can have grave consequences for social stability and order. It is imperative for political leaders to foster a culture of respect and dialogue, rather than one of hostility and division. As India navigates its own complex political landscape, the attempt on the life of a former president by a 20-yearold first-time voter in the US should serve as a cautionary tale.