Measured approach: Lessons From Operation Sindoor

NEW DELHI: Just three weeks after “Operation Sindoor,” during which India’s military struck nine known terrorist basecamps and other facilities in Pakistani territory, an analysis of the military and operational dimensions of the strikes provides some preliminary but clear conclusions.

For starters, India hit hard, but its strikes were carefully targeted and calibrated, even taking place at night to avoid collateral damage to civilians. In fact, Operation Sindoor was a remarkable logistical and military achievement. Although Pakistan was on the highest alert, India succeeded in breaching the country’s defensive lines, striking its intended targets, and eliminating some known terrorists (whose funerals were attended by high-level Pakistani military and police officials).

While Operation Sindoor targeted a wider set of targets than any previous Indian counter-terrorist action, India deliberately avoided striking military and governmental targets at first.

This sent a clear signal: India’s actions were a reprisal against terrorism, not the opening salvo in a war against Pakistan. It was the Pakistani military’s decision to respond with escalation that invited additional retribution.

The second conclusion is that the terms of India’s engagement with Pakistan have irrevocably shifted, as India has shed its hesitations regarding military action. For too long, fears of “internationalising” the Kashmir issue led India to pursue the same futile diplomatic processes, presenting dossiers and evidence to the world but getting little in return.

Even the terrorism sanctions committee of the UN Security Council has long allowed Pakistan to find shelter behind one of its permanent members.

India is not abandoning international diplomacy, but it will no longer depend solely on it.

Instead, India will now respond to terrorism with military force, and meet any retaliation with clear and unwavering resolve. India is prepared to inflict even more severe consequences if required.

What India will not do – and this is the third conclusion – is allow Pakistan to use its nuclear arsenal to hold its neighbour, and the rest of the world, hostage. From swift cross-border surgical strikes in 2016 to an air strike in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province in 2019, India has progressively expanded the scope of its operations in recent years, crossing both the Line of Control and the international border, with the latest strikes occurring in the Pakistani heartland. India has thus exposed the emptiness of Pakistan’s threats of catastrophic escalation and shown that terrorism can be met with a calibrated military response without inviting a nuclear holocaust.

Pakistan can now expect any future terrorist provocations to be met with a full-scale conventional response by India. Every time Pakistan’s military leadership considers sending its proxies across the border to sow mayhem in Kashmir or elsewhere, they will have to ask themselves whether the manoeuvre is worth bearing the retaliatory weight of India’s conventional military power.

In fact, Pakistan might find that its sponsorship of cross-border terrorism jeopardises the very lifeblood of its people: water. This was the message sent by India’s decision, which immediately preceded Operation Sindoor, to place the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance.

While India has shown no inclination to divert these waters – it has not even begun to build the necessary reservoirs – the mere suggestion fundamentally changes the subcontinent’s geopolitics. India is no longer trading dialogue for peace; it is demanding a cessation of terrorism, in exchange for the continued provision of water.

Operation Sindoor also served to remind the world of Pakistan’s deep links to terrorism and its perilous nuclear brinkmanship. New details about the behind-the-scenes negotiations and manoeuvres that delivered the ceasefire will no doubt emerge. But what is indisputable is that it would not have been achievable without Indian military pressure and India’s readiness to end its operation as soon as Pakistan ceased escalation.

The bilateral relationship is unlikely to change substantially shortly, as any dialogue between India and Pakistan – especially on the Kashmir issue – is, for now, a remote possibility. In any case, Kashmir is neither the root cause of nor the ultimate solution to the tensions between India and Pakistan. This is a myth perpetuated by Pakistan to justify its claims on Indian territory. The narrative is based on nothing more than the bigoted argument – repeated most recently by Pakistan’s newly promoted army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir – that Muslims cannot live in a country with a non-Muslim majority.

Until that changes, India must prepare for the worst. While India has preferred to focus on economic development and high-tech growth, rather than war-readiness, Indians clearly cannot assume that good sense will prevail in Pakistan. India has demonstrated its ability to withstand and respond to Pakistan’s provocations, but it must continue to adapt, prepare, and update its strategies. This includes bolstering its military capabilities, addressing diplomatic vulnerabilities, enhancing internal security measures, and readying its citizens for the cycles of violence, loss, and disorder that might prove unavoidable if terrorism persists.

To be sure, India enjoys considerable advantages, including a GDP that is 11 times the size of Pakistan’s and overwhelming military superiority. But the Pakistani military’s overweening domestic authority, control over its national budget, historical relationships with major powers, and strategic alliances with China and Turkey endow it with powerful tools to sustain an armed conflict. Indeed, Turkish drones and Chinese-manufactured weapons (such as J-10C fighter jets and PL-15 guided missiles) have already bolstered Pakistan’s military capabilities and challenged India’s air defences. So, while India would undoubtedly prevail in any conventional war, Pakistan could inflict significant harm.

India can take pride in the resolute political will it has shown in confronting cross-border terrorism. It has proven its capacity to execute swift, targeted, and calculated military operations when appropriate, and to dismantle Pakistan’s terror infrastructure with precision, even though this can be rebuilt. And it has shown that, even at times of heightened emotions, it can sustain a calm and measured approach.

India will have to bring these strengths to bear as it navigates an increasingly volatile security environment – no doubt made more fragile by recent events.