Palestinian Refugees: What would make Egypt open its border?

CATHRIN SCHAER

ISRAEL: For many Egyptians, the timing is just too suspicious. Last week, the Israeli military said it would launch an assault on Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, near the Egyptian border, where more than 1 million displaced Palestinians are sheltering. There are concerns that, as more and more people are pushed up against the border, plans formulated by Israeli think tanks and leaked to media earlier in the current conflict are closer to becoming a reality. The Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy, released a paper saying the conflict was a “unique and rare opportunity to evacuate the whole Gaza Strip.”

The reported plan is something that the Egyptian government has firmly rejected, fearing that Palestinians who leave will never be allowed back. Rights organizations have equated any such “forcible transfer” as amounting to a war crime. At the same time, a decision will soon be made by the International Monetary Fund, or IMF, as to whether Egypt gets an extended loan — between $6 bn (5.6 bn euros) and $12 bn — to prop up its badly indebted economy and its currency.

“Is this blackmail?” a recent story in online Lebanese-owned newspaper Al Modon asked, speculating that Egypt could have its international debts forgiven by the IMF’s key shareholders in the US and Europe if it were to host displaced Palestinians. The timing and other earlier reports — including one from the UK’s Financial Times that said Israeli politicians had asked European counterparts to pressure Egypt into opening borders — seem to justify those suspicions. There’s even precedent: In 1991, the United States forgave Egypt around $10 billion of debt because it agreed to support a US-led coalition fighting Iraq.

But, in this case, that’s not what is happening, Riccardo Fabiani, director of the North Africa project for the International Crisis Group NGO, told DW. “Unfortunately, this has been a rumor circulating for a while,” Fabiani said. “It’s been on social media and on the streets, with people saying the West was offering money to Egypt in return for hosting refugees.”

But, Fabiani added, “there’s a serious misunderstanding here. The IMF, the EU and, more generally, the West, are willing and prepared to give money to Egypt because they’re very worried about the country’s destabilization because of the Gaza conflict.” On top of inflation and excessive national debt, Egypt has been hard hit by the decrease in tourism to the region and insecurity on the Red Sea, Fabiani said

“Basically, with 120 million people, Egypt is too big to fail,” said Ashraf Hassan, a policy associate at the US-based Century International think tank. For Egypt, such a deal doesn’t add up either, Hassan added. “I think the regime recognizes there are no economic incentives that can offset the security and political peril that might come from letting Palestinians in,” Hassan said. That includes potential security risks from Palestinian militants on the Egyptian side of the border, as well as being seen to be aiding Israel in permanently displacing Gaza residents.

For now, Egypt’s authoritarian government is walking a fine line between popular sentiment — the public broadly supports the Palestinian cause — and long-standing security arrangements with Israel. Last week, AP reported anonymous sources saying Egypt might drop a landmark Camp David peace treaty it signed with Israel in the late 1970s if a military campaign went ahead in Rafah. Egypt’s foreign minister, Sameh Shoukry, has since denied this.