DMK, AIADMK lose vote share in Lok Sabha polls 2024; BJP, NTK gain slice of pie

CHENNAI: The grand 40/40 victory of the DMK led INDIA bloc might have offered the ruling DMK led INDIA bloc perfect props for political grandstanding at this juncture, but, arithmetically, it has been anything but comforting in the long game of politics.

In fact, the two Dravidian majors (DMK and AIADMK), which have been dominating the political landscape of Tamil Nadu for over 50 years, collectively, seem to be suffering a mild decline in their vote shares. Never in the 50 years of their political domination have they suffered such a low collective vote share as was witnessed in the recently concluded Parliamentary polls. The DMK and AIADMK led alliances have only managed to secure around 70 per cent of the total votes polled in 2024 LS polls, lowest in the recent decades.

A combination of factors, alliance, multi-cornered contest, anti-incumbency or probably the narrative pushed by the resourceful BJP to tiring lengths could have unusually left a few more voters disenchanted. Traditionally, between 15 per cent and 20 per cent votes have largely gone against the two parties in the Dravidian hinterland even in the Assembly polls notwithstanding, the slump this time has been palpable.

The DMK led INDIA bloc, comprising the two left parties, Thol Thirumavalavan’s VCK, IUML and Vaiko’s MDMK, accounting for only around 46 per cent of the votes polled and the AIADMK combine garnering only a little over 23 per cent votes is certainly a piece of statistics the two Dravidian parties would not be proud of.

That the non-Dravidian parties in the poll fray, mainly the BJP and actor Seeman’s Naam Tamilar Katchi (contested alone) garnered 11.24 per cent and 8 per cent, respectively, has only made victory bittersweet for the DMK and rubbed salt into the wounds of a struggling AIADMK. If securing 96.9 per cent in 1984 LS poll collectively was the high point of the DMK and AIADMK binary, the low point would be 2024 with the Dravidian duo jointly garnering less than 70 per cent, even marginally less than the 71.07 per cent of the 2014 Parliamentary poll which saw the state face at least a five-cornered contest.

Despite falling six per cent below its 2019 tally (33.53%), the DMK could take comfort in its vote share consistently hovering around the 26 per cent mark. Even in the 2004 and 1996 LS polls the DMK alliance swept, the party had only around 24.6 and 25.63 per cent vote share. The numbers are not in favour of the AIADMK which fell from a mammoth 44.27 per cent in 2014 to 21.2 per cent (marginal two per cent above 2019).

Psephologist Venkatesh Atreya says, “There is a slight decline in the vote share of the Dravidian parties. BJP has benefitted to some extent through their past alliances with the AIADMK. The marginal decline is because of the kind of alliances they forged and some anti-incumbency faced by the ruling DMK. There is space in Tamil Nadu for alternative views. It could have happened for a variety of reasons, but not necessarily ideological. One cannot deny that the Modi brand did not sell in Tamil Nadu and hate for BJP is widespread. In 2016 when the People’s Welfare Alliance happened, they did not garner even the 20 per cent non-Dravidian votes. Some amount of growth for the BJP has been seen owing to the media and narrative control. Except the western districts and places like Ramnad and Nagercoil the BJP has not grown substantially.”

Senior journalist Priyan Srinivasan said, “The poll per cent decline for the Dravidian parties or the gain for the BJP is only a temporary phenomenon. Indeed, the six per cent decline in the DMK vote share is due to the anti-incumbency factor, which the ruling party must rectify in two years. The decline has more to do with the AIADMK falling steeply. This election in TN was about ousting Modi. In that, a segment of Modi supporters, mainly the upper caste right wing vote has shifted towards BJP after the demise of Jayalalithaa. The numbers will change and the BJP vote share will drop in the Assembly polls. The voters of Tamil Nadu do not engage a national party in an Assembly poll. The AIAMDK must consolidate itself ahead of 2026. Even if it does not, the votes would shift more towards the NTK and not the BJP.”