Signs indicate scorcher of a summer, say experts
Unlike the last few years, the minimum temperature has seen a rise this year due to cloud formation during night hours. “It has resulted in a surge in both minimum and maximum temperatures in the last few weeks.
CHENNAI: With several places in the State experiencing higher than normal temperatures in February itself, the summer this year may turn out to be a scorcher, say weather experts. Even as officials say it is not possible to predict now, some have cited the experience of 2015 to opine that the year after El Nino is hotter and may result in hotter summer and lesser rainfall.
Unlike the last few years, the minimum temperature has seen a rise this year due to cloud formation during night hours. “It has resulted in a surge in both minimum and maximum temperatures in the last few weeks. It is likely to continue, but a long-term prediction cannot be done at present,” said P Senthamarai Kannan, director, area cyclone centre, Regional Meteorological Centre (RMC), Chennai.
Generally, in the year following El Nino, the ocean would be warmer during the winter and summer seasons. This is particularly so in Peninsular India where the nights would be warmer. For example, there was an El Nino episode in 2015 and the winter of the next year was hotter than usual. There was another El Nino episode in 2023, which many are citing to back their prediction about a hotter summer.
“As the ocean is warmer than usual, it would impact the weather conditions. It could lead to a surge in mercury level and bring stronger cyclonic storms," said K Srikanth, an independent weather blogger, who added that North India may witness heatwave conditions for 7 to 10 days and even Peninsular India is likely to experience heatwaves but for a shorter duration.
According to Prof Kurian Joseph, director, Center for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Management, Anna University, the present surge in temperature even before the summer set in is not only due to changes in weather conditions but is also linked to climate change.
“The maximum temperature, which has already risen in the State, it is likely to continue. We can expect dry days increasing and eventually leading to a decrease in rainfall during the monsoon seasons,” he added.
The sea turning warmer has affected marine life, said TT Ajith Kumar, principal scientist, National Bureau of Fish Genetic Resources. Recalling what he witnessed first-hand while doing a project in Agatti Island in Lakshadweep, Ajit explained how a rise in sea surface temperature by two degree Celsius in May 2020 resulted in massive coral bleaching.
"Apart from coral, even sea anemone got bleached due to the rise in temperature, and the fish attached to sea anemone started to move away. Climate change is affecting the marine environment, too, which has been observed in coral reefs and associated organisms, especially over Andaman and Nicobar Island, Lakshadweep, and the Gulf of Mannar,” he added.
