Tamil Nadu may get above normal rains in southwest monsoon

CHENNAI: As the southwest monsoon set in Kerala has become favourable for Tamil Nadu especially western ghats and coastal districts that have witnessed intense spells for the last few days and are likely to continue.

The meteorological department stated that the State might receive above average rainfall during the monsoon season like the previous year.

It is noted that the capital city has already recorded excess rainfall during the season till June 8.

Unlike the previous years, the monsoon over Kerala has commenced early which has brought respite from scorching heat in Tamil Nadu for over a week.

"Usually, the State records excess rainfall activity only in July or August, whereas this year we have already received largely excess rainfall with 55.8 mm that has increased by 230 percent. So, various parts of Tamil Nadu including Chennai might witness above normal rainfall patterns during the southwest monsoon season, " explained P Senthamarai Kannan, director of area cyclone centre, Regional Meteorological Centre (RMC), Chennai.

Generally, following the onset of SWM in Kerala, it would be favourable only for western ghats districts of Tamil Nadu.

Since climate change plays a vital role recently, even other parts of the State including Chennai city have witnessed intense monsoon spells for the last two years.

The capital city has been experiencing moderate rain along with thunderstorm activities and it has already recorded average rainfall 65 mm as on June 8, that is 377 percent excess rainfall within a short span especially during the southwest monsoon.

Of the 40 districts including Puducherry and Karaikal, the highest amount of rainfall was recorded in Virudhunagar district with 70 mm against the average rainfall of 9.3 mm which is 660 percent more than usual.

In 2023, SWM commenced on July 8, Tamil Nadu recorded 9 percent above-average rainfall, of which Chennai district received 779 mm of rainfall which is 74 percent excess recorded during the monsoon season.

"The southwest monsoon would usually trigger rainfall over western ghats districts - Nilgiris, Kanniyakumari, Dindigul, Virudhunagar, but this year even coastal and interior districts of Tamil Nadu have been receiving moderate to heavy rain. The average rainfall for Chennai is 45 cm during the monsoon season from June to September, and it is likely to record above average this year since the southwest monsoon has become active early, " opined K Srikanth, an independent weather blogger in the city.

He further mentioned that the Western ghats districts of Tamil Nadu are likely to receive large excess rainfall this year.

It is noted that the southwest monsoon has become vigorous over north interior Tamil Nadu on June 2, so rainfall activity is likely to continue over a few places.

On the other hand, the meteorological department has predicted that the rainfall activity would gradually reduce over western ghats and coastal districts in the coming days until the next system formed over the sea.

Meanwhile, during the summer season this year Tamil Nadu witnessed hottest days in March and April than usual.

The State failed to witness summer rain for two months due to the impact of El Nino prevailing during the northeast monsoon season in 2023.

The year followed by El Nino, usually the ocean would absorb heat earlier and gradually release it, which eventually makes it hotter than normal on land.

However, under the influence of a low-pressure area formed over the Bay of Bengal several districts of Tamil Nadu saw heavy to extremely heavy rainfall where the State recorded excess rainfall within a short period of time during the summer season this year.

The experts stated that this year it would be La Nina, which would reduce the heat over the sea unlike this year.