AIADMK’s alliance anxiety a year ahead of Lok Sabha polls

CHENNAI: If the ongoing alliance efforts for the Lok Sabha polls of 2024 were to be summarised in the relationship parlance, the rival AIADMK camps led by Edappadi K Palaniswami and O Panneerselvam are ‘single,’ the DMK-led secular progressive alliance is ‘committed’ for now; the aspirational BJP and the fast-fading DMDK are ‘available,’ and the PMK led by Anbumani Ramadoss and Seeman’s Naam Tamilar Katchi are ‘morattu’ (desperately) ‘single,’ preferring to stay aloof till they eventually embrace partners.

The secular alliance is content with not even engaging discussions germane to possible political realignment in the state, unmindful of the recent differences between them over the release of the convicts in the Rajiv Gandhi assassination case and the EWS reservation. A senior Congress leader confided to DT Next that the party has no reason to walk out of a winning alliance, which is set to snatch even the Theni seat from the rival camp and ensure a complete sweep in 2024.

“We are already considered a winning alliance and the momentum is on our side. Why should we even consider disturbing such a harmonious alliance? A couple of small players, including the PMK, which has been hobnobbing with the BJP since 2014, could gravitate towards our alliance close to the polls. Should it happen, even the little anti-incumbency faced by the DMK regime would be negated and a total sweep would become a certainty,” the Congress senior said.

A DMK leader said the speculations of friction in the secular alliance were floated by the AIADMK to keep the demanding BJP on tenterhooks. “The AIADMK has been held to ransom by the BJP. Edappadi Palaniswami is pretending to play hardball with the BJP by floating theories of a mega alliance only to induce the BJP to side with him and settle the leadership crisis. Let the AIADMK factions unite first before taking about luring our allies. For them, restoring order in the AIADMK is a precondition to alliance. Therefore, they are making noise,” the DMK leader added.

Though these comments are made by rivals, the DMK leader’s criticism could not be brushed aside if one were to assess the turn of events in the AIADMK camp. Palaniswami’s statement that the AIADMK would form a ‘mega alliance’ for 2024 is a loud and clear message to the BJP, which is taking all efforts to unify the various claimants of the “Two Leaves,” including the splinter party, AMMK, led by TTV Dhinakaran. Observers note that EPS is aware that any rapprochement with OPS and TTV would draw the curtains on his general secretary ambitions.

According to observers, EPS is thus not averse to de-boarding the NDA ship to go solo like what late J Jayalalithaa did in 2014. Because, the stakes are higher for the BJP, which has less than 4 per cent vote share in the Dravidian land, to secure as many seats as possible from the south to offset the potential losses in the North.

Sources alleged that the rumour about a possible Congress-AIADMK reunion was manufactured in Siluvampalayam (native of EPS) to exert pressure on the BJP. “The stake is high for the BJP in the forthcoming Lok Sabha polls. So, EPS is making a move to compel the BJP to act in his favour to put an end to the party leadership row. But, the BJP wants a unified AIADMK for larger number of seats from Tamil Nadu,” political critic Thaarasu Shyam said.

Shyam opined that Governor RN Ravi would try to replicate what C Vidyasagar Rao did during the split after Jaya’s death – bridge the gap between the OPS and EPS camps. But, the chances of the efforts succeeding are still not clear, as EPS is firm on single leadership under him and vehemently opposes taking back OPS. “BJP may go to the extent of offering Governor post to OPS plus a cabinet berth for his son, which he has been longing for, to settle the dispute and make EPS the leader of AIADMK to head NDA alliance in TN,” he added.

Sources said senior BJP leaders, including state president K Annamalai, and the national leadership is clear that the party’s alliance would be with the AIADMK faction that has the Two Leaves symbol.