Biden to warn Putin of economic pain if he invades Ukraine

Washington

President Joe Biden is ready to warn Vladimir Putin during avideo call Tuesday that Russia will face economy-jarring sanctions if itinvades neighboring Ukraine as the U.S. president seeks a diplomatic solutionto deal with the tens of thousands of Russian troops massed near the Ukraineborder.

Biden aims to make clear that his administration stands ready to take actionsagainst the Kremlin that would exact a very real cost on the Russian economy,according to White House officials. Putin, for his part, is expected to demandguarantees from Biden that the NATO military alliance will never expand toinclude Ukraine, which has long sought membership. That's a non-starter for theAmericans and their NATO allies.

We've consulted significantly with our allies and believe we have a pathforward that would impose significant and severe harm on the Russian economy,White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Monday in previewing the meeting.You can call that a threat. You can call that a fact. You can call that preparation.You can call it whatever you want to call it.

The leader-to-leader conversation Biden speaking from the Situation Room, Putinfrom Moscow is expected to be one of the toughest of Biden's presidency andcomes at a perilous time. US intelligence officials have determined that Russiahas massed 70,000 troops near the Ukraine border and has made preparations fora possible invasion early next year.

The U.S. has not determined whether Putin has made a final decision to invade.Still, Biden intends to make clear to the Russian leader that there will be avery real cost should Russia proceed with military action, according to asenior administration official who briefed reporters on the condition ofanonymity.

Biden was vice president in 2014 when Russian troops marched into the Black Seapeninsula of Crimea and annexed the territory from Ukraine. Aides say theCrimea episode one of the darker moments for former President Barack Obama onthe international stage looms large as Biden looks at the current smolderingcrisis.

The eastward expansion of NATO has from the start been a bone of contention notjust with Moscow but also in Washington. In 1996, when President Bill Clinton'snational security team debated the timing of membership invitations to formerSoviet allies Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic, Defense Secretary WilliamPerry urged delay in order to keep Russian relations on track. Perry wrote inhis memoir that when he lost the internal debate he considered resigning.

Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic were formally invited in 1997 and joinedin 1999. They were followed in 2004 by Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia, Sloveniaand the former Soviet states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Since then,Albania, Croatia, Montenegro and North Macedonia have joined, bringing NATO'stotal to 30 nations.

A key principle of the NATO alliance is that membership is open to anyqualifying country. And no outsider has membership veto power. While there'slittle prospect that Ukraine would be invited into the alliance anytime soon,the U.S. and its allies won't rule it out.

In Washington, Republicans are framing this moment as a key test of Biden'sleadership on the global stage.

Biden vowed as a candidate to reassert American leadership after President DonaldTrump's emphasis on an America first foreign policy. But Biden has faced fiercecriticism from Republicans who say he's been ineffective in slowing Iran'smarch toward becoming a nuclear power and that the Biden administration hasdone too little to counter autocratic leaders like China's Xi Jinping, Iran'sAyatollah Ali Khamenei and Putin.

Fellow authoritarians in Beijing and Tehran will be watching how the free worldresponds, said Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. And President Biden hasan opportunity to set the tone when he speaks with Putin.

Trump, who showed unusual deference to Putin during his presidency, said in aNewsmax interview on Monday that the Biden-Putin conversation would not be afair match, describing it as tantamount to the six-time Super Bowl champion NewEngland Patriots facing a high school football team.

Ahead of the Putin call, Biden on Monday spoke with leaders of the UnitedKingdom, France, Germany and Italy to coordinate messaging and potentialsanctions.

The White House said in a statement that the leaders called on Russia tode-escalate tensions and agreed that diplomacy "is the only way forward toresolve the conflict.

Ahead of the Biden-Putin faceoff, Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Mondayspoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Zelenskyy wrote on Twitter that he and Blinken agreed to continue joint &;concerted action and expressed his gratitude for the U.S. and allies providingcontinued support of our sovereignty & territorial integrity. Biden himselfis expected to speak with Zelenskyy later this week.

State Department spokesman Ned Price said that Blinken reiterated the UnitedStates' unwavering support for Ukraine's sovereignty, independence, andterritorial integrity in the face of Russian aggression.

The Kremlin has made clear that Putin planned to seek binding guarantees fromBiden precluding NATO's expansion to Ukraine. Biden and aides have indicated nosuch guarantee is likely, with the president himself saying he won't acceptanyone's red line.

Psaki stressed NATO member countries decide who is a member of NATO, notRussia. And that is how the process has always been and how it will proceed.

Still, Putin sees this as a moment to readjust the power dynamic of theU.S.-Russia relationship.

It is about fundamental principles established 30 years ago for the relationsbetween Russia and the West, said Fyodor Lukyanov, a leading Moscow-basedforeign policy expert. Russia demands to revise these principles, the West saysthere's no grounds for that. So, it's impossible to come to an agreement justlike that.

Beyond Ukraine, there are plenty of other thorny issues on the table as well,including cyberattacks and human rights. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov saidUS-Russian relations are overall in a rather dire state.

Both the White House and the Kremlin sought in advance to lower expectationsfor the call. Both sides said they didn't expect any breakthroughs on Ukraineor the other issues up for discussion, but that just the conversation itselfwill be progress.